32 Year Stock market cycle

Possible outside reversal day in the making. This could be the 9 high.

 

HPQ looks interesting. I bought puts today for a move down into late April.

 

I think that HPQ is almost ready to bounce back up. I'd be looking for a short term play of April 32.5 Calls (earnings 5/16, IV=29% - 50% percentile, p/c ratio .97). Stop loss contingent to ~$32.3

 

Option Trader,

Is this supposed to work from any years? I checked 1944 and 1976. Those didn't turn out so well with this method. Thanks.

Best,

LB

 

This works in 32 year intervals. The solution I posted for 2006 is derived from the average turn points of the years 1974 (2006 minus 32), 1942 (1974 minus 32), and 1910 (1942 minus 32 years). The solution that works for 2006 will next work for the year 2038 (2006 plus 32). If there are an average of 26 turn points per year, then in the full 32 year cycle there would be 832 turn points in the entire cycle and then it would start over again, every 32 years.
You can check out 2005 by comparing the charts of 1973, 1941, and 1909. Regards, Russell.

 

OT,

It just doesn't seem to work well enough. How do you use this info? Thanks.

Best,

LB

 

I trade options on individual stocks. I have a list of about 50 or so stocks to chose from. I look for common chart patterns on daily charts that tend to agree with the cycle turn points, and then trade accordingly. You want to put the probabilities in your favor, e.g. chart pattern + cycle turn point = good trade. Check out the HPQ chart above.
Other stocks on my watch list for down moves into late April are CAT, FNM, IBM, MRVL, and WFMI.

 

Possible trade on CAT. Looking for a down move.

 

I think the 9 high is confirmed. Down move now underway to the 10 low due late April. Go short or buy puts.

Please go to the begining of the thread if you do not know what is going on here.

 

I confirmed that with the NYSE Summation Index.