32 Year Stock market cycle

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Option_Trader32, Mar 30, 2006.

  1. The following is a thread I started in the Trading forum. I thought I would start this over in the Stocks forum as this thread pertains to the stock market. The quote below is how I started the thread in February. At the time of this writing, the cycle is moving from a 7 high to the 8 low due early April.

    "Market cycles follow a 32 year time period. Below is a chart of the Dow at 32 year intervals. The years of 1974, 1942 and 1910 are displayed, each at 32 year intervals with the year 2006, (32 years after 1974) now unfolding. Highs and lows are marked on the historical charts that correspond to a particular market cycle time period. Look at the number 1 high. It occurs on average in early January. Then the 2 low occurs on average, just past middle January. The 3 high is in late January. The 4 low occurs around the middle of Febuary. Look for a move to the 5 high in early March in the stock market. Their is no way of knowing how far the market may move, this is only a way of knowing approximately WHEN a market may move. The turn points should not be considered accurate so you must give room for error as far as using this for timing.
    These charts are created from Prophet.net. You can do your own research on this 32 year cycle by using the historical data available for free on their Java charts. They have the Dow going back to 1901. Go to prophet.net, open java charts, bring up the Dow on the charts, on the dropdown box for time period, click ALL. A monthly chart of the Dow will load going back to 1901. Go to the dropdown box for chart time period and click daily, and the chart will load for daily bars going back to 1901. You can create charts at 32 year intervals to copy and paste to an image viewer to compare for yourself.
    I provide this info on Elitetrader for further discussion. Hopes this help your trading."
  2. The attachment is a current chart of the cash S&P, with the approximate timing of the turn points determined from the 32 year cycle chart in the previous post above. Currently there is some consolidation around the 7 high. Expect some sort of move to the 8 low.
  3. This is more suitable for technical analysis. Moving it to that forum.
  4. promagma


    Maybe because most traders from '74 have retired by now (except for Grob maybe). So we are repeating the mistakes of 32 years ago.

    BTW based on one of my own (unrelated) indicators.... I initiated a short position on the SP yesterday. Good luck to us.
  5. ess1096


    If you are interested in market cycles you might like the book "The Next Great Bubble Boom" by Harry S. Dent

    Interesting book if nothing else.
  6. Pay closer attention to the 4-year cycle. 32 is the 8th harmonic of 4. If you believe that the current 4-year cycle began in late-2002, you'd expect it to bottom out later this year, ideally in September or October when the market seems to have it's biggest meltdowns. We'll see what happens.
  7. fullmoon


  8. Minimal down move to the 8 low. From todays market action, it seems the market wants to power higher. The 9 high is due mid April.
    Hi Fullmoon. Yes this is Delta, but their time frames are wrong. If the Delta time frames are multiplied by 8, the inversion problem is solved and new time cycles open up such as the one I post here.
  9. cnms2


    Nah ... I think it will go down in the next couple of weeks.
    #10     Apr 3, 2006