Stop counting the cycle on Dow. Look at S&P and NDX 100. They are traded instruments now as well as Dow. The arb activity among these 3 indices will keep them in sync until one of them break loose. So, for those interested in EW counting, take the other indices into account as well.
The points I prfer to use for a measured move vary slightly, and have the INDU already have fulfilled its logical measurement to the upside. I either measure from the top of the previous range (the initial base) to the bottom of the current range (the midstage consolodation area). Or secondarily, if one is going to use your method of measuring, then the points from which the measurements are derived must be consistently applied. Since you used the 7400 to the extreme high on that initial leg, in order to be consistent, the point of inception for the second leg would also need to be a significant low, such as the 10200 area, ( which in this instance may be the coorect low to apply from). If so, using the 3500 figure, added to 10200, = 13700, close a fkn nuff. I have always preferred to measure the breakoput points (top of prior range) to lower points of next range (next consolodation area), and then apply whatever that result is added to the next thrust, measured from the top of that range...it works out to the same general point, just a little variance on what points one uses. By my math, (since that 7400 low was not at the top of a range, but was in fact an extreme v low), but blending that with the method described above, ie top of range to low of next range, etc, I get approx 2350 from 7400 to approx 9750, then 2350 + 11000 gets 13350, which has fulfilled. In short, I think 14200 is not applicable in the manner you have derived it. However, it may be if one creates another new, smaller measured move. 12000 to 13600 = 1600, 1600 + 13250 = 14950....oh my gosh! just shy of what may prove to be an elusive but highly touted and teased round number of 15000. If the market is going to enter a 'parabolimania phase', this is about the point in the cycle for it to do so, so anything is certainly possible, and while I believe the market may have already achieved a top price, one missing ingredient from this is a hyperventilating stage. May be time to break out the oxygen bottles, we may be going for the summit. http://www.prophet.net/analyze/sc.jsp?symbol=$INDU
This is NOT EW. This is time cycles. Markets are not random and follow a set order such as displayed here every 32 years. It is not perfectly accurate and that should be taken into consideration using this for analysis. The numbers on the chart are simply for purposes of indentification. Dow data is available back to 1901. This is not available on S&P or Nasdaq. I think S&P goes back to 1938 or so. Here is the 1975/43 chart with the current S&P on the bottom and the apparent cycle turns. Now moving to the 5 high.
My mistake. The S&P chart formation is particularly interesting as it has more profound swings between point 3 and 4 this year relative to the one you showed for 1975.
the reason I use 10,700 is because thats where it had its first good pullback and thats where it was tested after it broke out and tested and has run to 13,600
I can't WAIT for that 5 - 6 move to occur ! WHEN, OH WHEN ? That's the big question. Now, August, or September ?
Well, these charts show the approximate timing. The down move occurs in the second half of July, so it could start anytime now. It could start early or it could come late. This only shows the approximate timing not magnitude of the move. The actual down move could be rather small, but because of the overbought situation of the stock indicies, any correction could be very profitable to trade. I bought qqqq puts yesterday.