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I'm sorry to inform you that your account will likely be annihilated on that assumption. The US is gonna pull some sort of bullshit out of their ass to stop chaos like the from happening.
Simple, very very simple. There is not one person who knows where the Dow will be in 6 months, 1 year or 10 years. So place your bet where you think it will be -- short or long. Have a stop in case you're wrong. It's really not more difficult than this.
I agree 100% with the last post. Nobody knows where the market will be. That being said, Dent gets a lot of grief about his Dow 36,000 prediction that he should not. He was predicting that the credit bubble would be directed mainly toward the stock market as opposed to the housing market where it did go. He basic reasoning regarding credit expansion and contraction is sound. I would not trade off his recommendations, but I would take them into consideration.