Hi All, I saw a article in Active Trader Mag', about, a 30 min's bar system, under the KISS idea. First, am I allowed to cut and past it here ? Legally ? Just to better explain it than my fumbling. Pretty much just buying/selling/reversing 1% above/below the previous 30 min' bar. Always in . A simple, very KISS (apart from figuring out the 1%, on that system, just kidding, really My kinda trading system, but is it realistic ??? Will it work ? I'm looking to set up with TS soon, and they mentioned in the article that they'd post the code for TS, just haven't found it yet. I've noticed a few winning systems in their articles over the past. (always with the disclaimer, but I'm cool with that, nowadays got to pass the buck on just about on everything) OK I could just go out and forward test, then put some real money into it and see I'm just curious though, have I been sooo blind and missed winning systems printed in front of my eyes for so long ?? Or do they just curve fit an idea/system to some data to fill the pages ??? Views, opinions, ideas welcome. Thanks Andy
Strategies are not the problem. There are umpteen stratgies out there that have the potential to make money. Are you prepared to trade this strategy for six months while you learn its nuances realizing that its going to cost you a few grand to work out the kinks?
I agree with you on 10 min time frame, I just do not feel that one should be always in the market. There has to be a rule which will prohibit trading in inapropriet times. Walter
Maybe after extreme moves or reading in volatility? ATR? You know when we get that big gap in the morning and it grinds sideways. Need to get into that chop when the atr gets real low again.I know you'll get chopped up in narrow low volatility ranges, but don't you have to be there in the contraction in order to catch the return to expansion? I've been looking at nr7s utilizing 30 mins, 15, 5 mins and 3mins and it looks like the larger time frame is less likely to triangulate or chop into a vortex where a breakout system will get hammered. Work is only anecdotal. No testing just looking at nr7s on diff charts with diff timeframes. If your profit target is small enough an nr7 seems to work on all time frames. Another thing to look for is lower volume and the the march of the dojis on lower time frame charts. Of course this all about the possible entree, I am totally clueless about rules for managing the trade, profit targets and stops. Steve
The deal with always in is similar to my signature. Always in precludes missing the big moves that provide the profits that wipe out the smaller choppy losses. An important point to consider is the average range of a bar for the time frame you are considering, since losses will always be the full range of a bar plus .2% by the method described earlier. You might not want to sustain that size of a loss while awaiting a profit. Immediately after a rapid move seems like a good time to exit the trade because one of two things are likely to happen: either the move ends with a bounce that eats profits before the reversal is initiated, or folowing the move the price moves sideways in consolidaton, again wasting profits in choppiness. Finally, we all know the lunch period is trendless more than not, so limiting the method to the moe volatile time periods might be a good idea to reduce chop. As always, backtesting is advised. Or papertrading. Or both.
thanks for the testing - using the system described ? Not good results as far as profits Maybe I should trade it the opposite way I guess this is at least a answer of maybe curve fitting an idea to fill pages of a trading mag' with so called systems !! Just a quick question, because it was mentioned to use 10 min' bars, would it be hard to run a test with the same sample (or at least just one of the stocks) to compare and see what results that brings up ? Please, only if it's an easy non time consuming task, if there is such a thing Thank you greatly, Andy
That's interesting... and somewhat spooky :eek: because I just thought about a system like that yesterday as a generalization of the first 30 min breakout system that was presented by Natalie and Mike in the thread called 'The importance of simplicity'. There is another system of this kind for ES, 60Brk that uses the first 60 min bar breakout as the basis for the entry.
andy, When I first learned how to play craps, I played the pass line and the come, and took the odds. The rule was three losers and the table is cold. Now I had drawn a craps layout on paper, so essentially I was papertrading the game. It was a huge benefit to have done so for many reasons. But specific to your post, I "reasoned" as you did that if I took three losers in a row the table must not be passing. So I said then I will play the opposite, the don't pass and the don't come. In my pea brain, I reasoned that if the dice were not making money passing, they would make money playing the don't pass. So I played those bets and lost that way too. What the heck was going on.... hey wait a minute! You guys know the answer don't you? The dice don't have just two ways to fall, they have three. They pass, they don't pass, and they chop!!! Sound familiar? The market goes up, it goes down, and it goes sideways. We all know it is the chop that kills you. And if it is true, that the market only trends about 1/3 of the time, then 2/3's of the time is spent in chop.