Baron asks me to be dignified in handling members and their foibles. This thread is at the "tough love" stage. I'll make some general comments. Historically, people did :get it" very early on. These milestone setting people became woven into the fabric of the financial industry once the financial industry was invented. It is fun to see how a milestone setter goes about his life and how he enjoys the fruits of his acquisition of knowledgeand skills using the common precepts of BF and the usual applications of OODA all over the place. Science and the Scientific Method also steps in and through deduction creates a hierarchy principles (large and small) for EMH and taking all of the market's offer. "The Package" sometimes called the Holy Grail has now appeared and along with it is the BF methodology of "making reasonable changes in technique". Technique is found in the mind as pices that are assembled and interrelated to form a whole. If the whole is complete and without voids, then the mind is differentiated. A differentiated mind supplies, from long term memory, at about the speed of light, a ono to one resourse which ALAWAYS matches the "sensing" of the trader. Everything goes terribly rotten for 90% of potential traders. BF explains why and it is a case of these people not getting any "tough love". I like Jon Netto's book "One Shot", One Kill". Semer Fi. He operates out of Vegas and we are going there this weekend to learn and play. As a sniper, he applied his knowledge and skills to getting the job done in trading, sports gambling and world class poker. Years back we exchanged notes on volume. He put in a tweak at alower level of the hierarchy.... it rippled on up to the proinciples he uses. It was synergistic, in other words. He had a question. He put it in the space. This was his mind, a very differentiated one, indeed, asking for some snippet of logic to wedge in between some other established knowledge and skills in his long term memory's organized inference. For him it is NOT unbelievable to be in the market all the time and be on the right side of the market all the time. As an expert trader, who is vert talented in many things, he easily recognizes that the market's offer is there all the time accumulating segment by segment. to make money what H do you use? H1. To lock in profit segments, what H do you use? H@. WE HAVE a SYSTEM!!!!!!!! BF gives you a system to straighten out the wrinkles in your mind's technique. you need to begin to notice I am using NLP here to crweate the same picture time after time. If I do it enough, while you sleep you get a long term memory chain that says: When me emotions signal, I go to my technique and make a reasonable change. At some point you get a three ring binder and a three hole punch and a color printer. At some point you jounal to expertise. Expert trading using the Cash Cow is an Excell heirarchy that is 1600 lines long. The core and first shell (called supremeshell) is over 700 lines. I accompany the Excel hierarchy with three other things. They merge into a three ring binder 2" thick called a TILE. T for text, I for display illustrations, L for logic schematics using Boolean Algebra, and E for the Excel snippet (piece) of logic. H2 is for events; H1 is for sitting in continuation to get to the next node. How it this TILE'd. In four parts. Print out the L of Cash Cow that was posted. Write the text for its use. Illustrate a cycle of PV going through the display cycle. Re do the logic in the form of a heirarchy on an Excel spread sheet. Everything gets to be named and ID'ed. You have some organization beginning. ET is kind of a place where minds do NOT come together for common cause. It is a punch bowl of howling turds most of the time. There is no ladle for dealing with that. People say they see gems once in a while. Jon Netto and I just deal in jems; We don't deal with using a sluice and flowing watered gold sands down it. We talk about what size pile is best to use in the rug at the lower end and how to get the gold out of the rug piles. Sharp angled gold is al we talk about. We go to the source to mine gold; we are not down stream types. Lets look at the gold field and pick out the major pieces we need to get the system to be very sensitive.
I put up a chart entitled Chart 3 for 3T's It has a point 1 to point 2 on the left (A) and a pt2, pt3 and ftt on the right (B) Chart 4 is attached. It is the compliment of the above. This gives us four pieces. First, I will post these two charts with events annotated on them
Here is chart 3 part A merged with chart 4 part B what you see is how an event (chart1) then another event (chart 2) became chart 3 or their compliment chart 4. The four pieces are all that is possible as a set of combinations. When a short trend is happeniong, it comes as two three element pieces. I will post the long trend chart next as chart 6.
Here I show a long followed by a short to complete a whole cycle. This is the CW's three pairs of up/down's. you can see the up/downs as the events happen. you notice sometimes there are groupings of linkages that are in the same direction to get from one extreme node to another. In BF terms, this is a classic example of why 90% of potential traders fail. BF is very specific about these modes of failure and how they create the emotional whammies along the way during a day of trading. The emotions are fear, anxiety and anger instead of the expert emotiions od support comfort and confidence. Lets use science to do the "reasonable changes in technique. You have the emotions signalling you to get to work to "fix" your technique. Lets take chart 7 and annotate it using "containers" and lets make sure we have enough columns in the logging. Chart 7 has a lot of franca lingua for a potential trader to add to his vocabulary. When he does he can read his logging notations and do his debriefing intelligently. traders have various skill levels. Two are depected here: the event to event trader and the trend monitorin and analysis trader. each takes MORE that the ATR range as you see. H1 and H2 dictated the profit segments and additional logic gave us, from BF B the nuts and bolts of pre event, event, postevent. We have to think. Then we have to do repitions to shift from short term memory to long term memory and have an appropriate "inference" to match each "event" in three parts: pre, @ and post. 9 events gives us 27 event oriented BF B considerations. these are all H2 generated. In between all of those we are also getting the H1's that tell us to "continue since NO CHANGE of H2 is ever signalled. We should TILE all of this as a way to gleen planning and strategies. Our routine has to let go of OODA too. BYE BYE OODA. OODA doesn't fit with Boolean logic using PM's that are binary vectors. A binary vector is an 'either" "or" sort of thinking and computer science application. By the way computer science at its best is logic and a Boolean Algebra application. So for all computer science folks, read my comments as dignified advisorys as how to dump the probabilisitc coding and replace it with binary vector logic. I hope everyone can see that nodal links are binary vectors on chart 7. Lets put in the boundaries of the trend monitoring and analysis. for Trends, We are always in a trend. you also see in chart 8 a new thing: TRENDS OVERLAP. LETS SAY YOU ARE GETTING EMOTIONAL SIGNALS DURING THE DAY. DO YOU HAVE THE VOLUME AND PRICE ON YOUR CHART? FIX THAT. DO YOU HAVE A CONTAINER FOR PRICE THAT IS THE SIMPLEST POSSIBLE. FIX THAT. Lets say you have been around for more than a week trading. By then you know that reding books does not allow you to make reasonable changes in your technique in response to emotional falgs you are being sent. Emotional flags come from BELOW THE NECK!!!!! The brain is not involved. you are getting a double whammy from the Bohr Syndome and the Lizard Syndrome. I should put up the diagrams of how the body is working. In boxing, the belt is at the waist. In trading the belt is a dog collar type thing. your emotions are hitting you from below the collar. See RTL and LTL. See BO of RTL and how it fits into events. Remember Dunnigan was using this stuff and so were Dodd/Granville. Put the appearance of the PC on a timeline. Mesure from NOW to the PC. Then take that length and find out that Duunigan, Dodd and Granville were further BEFORE the PC than the PC to NOW. Put me on the line in 1957 along with Darvas, etc.... I DREW THJESE LINES IN 1957 ON CHARTS i PENCILLED IN ON A MASTER i INKED ON A VEWLLUUM TO RUN BROWNLINES.
Jack, Your trading methods and the theory behind them are sound and simple, imho. Unfortunately the people who try to master them, with very few exceptions, get their asses kicked by the market, both long and short ... It's like karate competition fighters who are great until they get their asses kicked by a punk in the street who has no idea about karate ... Where's the disconnect? Can you do something about it? ... <object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Soc7nvD_WnI?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Soc7nvD_WnI?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>
How can a potential trader get a grip on setting up a game plan to become expert? Potential traders cannot accomplish this. They cannot do it. ET prove just why and how potential traders cannot make the grade. Any expert trader can reqad a post and in a New York minute know the poster os doomed. any potential trader can read ANY POST AND MISUNDERSTAND IT IN A NEW YORK MINUTE. This is called a dilemma. BF takes anyone who decides out of the dilemma in a New York minute. Here is the decision that cam be made in 10 milliseconds. Am I going to let myself take direction from my emotions and FINALLY, begin to make reasonable changes in my technique? No heck NO, I am not going to do that because it is something that gets in the way of my learning to make more money. MONEY MAKING it what I spend my time doing (between bigger losses or between always hanging on the sidelines out of fear, anxiety and anger). What is written in the log for each of the pieces of chart 8? Little teeny quick symbols that come from your mind when you look at the PV chart. It is the original MAGNIFICENT ENTERPRISE!!!!! 40 trades a day all at the ends of the finest observable container you annotated and logged. One sentence. Jon Netto and I have traded in public on the same displayed chart and WE KNEW WE WERE TAKING EACH TRADE AT THE SAME TIME. He talked into the mike and I used hand signals pre event, @ event, and post event. traderExpo staff swiped my ID at the end and asked if I would trade live the next EXPO. LOL..... they should be so lucky. B2B Slip in the BO 2R 2B R2R Slip in the BO 2B 2R What are the entries on the YM colums. for B2B there is b2b 2r 2b r2r 2b 2r b2b 2r 2b for 2R there is: r2r 2b 2r b2b 2r 2b r2r 2b 2r for 2B there is b2b 2r 2b r2r 2b 2r b2b 2r 2b We are now going into the OVERLAP of the two trends. I'm only 77 close to 78. So in ET I am posting in a dignified way and posting big time substantive information in every post. Many people just post their personal foibles that are screwing them all the time during every event of the RTH's of the market. There is one pattern that applies to all markets on everyfractal given minimal liquidity. Everything is held together by an order of events dictated by the markets. In 1790 Ricardo said cut your losses and let your profits run. the franca lingua of all these milestone setters is that there is a pattern; the pattern has an oredr of events. I fill in my log ahead of time. Then I annotate what the log order of events is dictating. Look at A. Lo's simulated PV charts that appeared in the Journal of Finance. Are you laughing yet. Read the pattern math relationships of five events over a minimum of 38 days. Are you laughing yet? A. Lo averages out noise. Are you laughing yet? Would you like to see his paper's bibliography? We have one reference in common. It is one ED later than to one I read 7 pages of to determine how the market works without noise or anomalies all the way down to the granularity of the markets. To determine a binary vector you need a reference. This is called "continuity" in thinking. The better the bar the better. There is NO 38 bars to find a pattern that requires five extremes. There is no test three bars later to see if the pattern was infomative. There is no dividing a pattern into two volume portions to find "increasing" or " decreasing". How could A. Lo be SO astute to divide the volume of a pattern into two halves and comare them on a binary vector basis? Luck. Simple dumb luck. He did his 31 year analysis and didn't use volume in the price analysis. So he made up a test and called it "conditional" analysis and tabbed variables other than price in franca lingua as " the curse of dimensionality." So lets wedge in some knowledge and skills for following along the links that connect the nodes. Why did the extremes of price happen to be associated with the extremes of volume? Go baby, use those neurons and start growing some and slip them in where they are now needed.
The karate kid really aced it as suggested by his bonsia trimmer. I did have a '46 ford V8 coupe. (black with police rear end). 7K on a set of tires. Replace the Pitman arm weekly. It takes a week to ream, plane and put in oversize rings. There is a disconnect. A big giant disconnect. Most hotshots want to be rich. To do that they focus on being right and all the time they are actually being wrong. It does not mean a thing for me to say that a person has to build his mind step by step using critical thinking. BF states you have to use binary vectors. Binary vectors are reference oriented. Two marketbars are related. MAK put up and updated the two matrices for determing this stuff. They were both baced on volume expressed as market pace. Here is the thing. All the posters here except us and a couple others are up/down oriented and the trend monitoring and analysis is right left oriented. I boxed as a left hander, same for tennis. In golf, I play right handed because of physics. People cannot gain a neutral bias and think right to left. trends have three parts and up/down has two parts. If a person gets to the sophistication of understanding market sentiment and market dominance, then he gets to play. I will post one more time the up/down dilemma. I will do it for chart 8. up DOM down non DOM UP DOM down DOM up non DOM down DOM These people ARE FUCKED mentally. It is an identity with the MAYAN discontinuity in their numbering base. Thier calander stems from obesrvations stated below. 100 is 360 and the other days were peyote days by plan. 18, 18 19 is the sequence. See stonehenge carbon pitts around stonehenge. 57 is more than a lifespan. A person usually does not have a long term memory that can handle the domm and non DOM sequence of three up/downs. They cannot even read this, probably. No one who has criticized my writing negatively has been able to think carefully enough to figure out up/down thinking is a DISASTER. What does it feel like in up/down land to get beat up by Dom/non DOM? Several people expressed their foibles regarding being informed of their deficiencies. Priceless as they say. DOM , non DOM DOM, DOM non DOM, DOM seeing this for 10,000 hours and NEVER EVEN HAVING A GLIMMER THAT IT IS FUCKING YOU EVEY DAY SEVERAL TIMES A DAY is priceless. BF calls this an EMH anomaly since it is observed and it is tracking almost all quants and traders. this is what reems regression analysis all the time. This is why people believe Chaos theory. Prbabilistic information theory turns trend monitoring and analysis into MUD!!!!!. a classic screwup is the "trend following". this is a novel orietation to reaction in behavior. try it out. You see Dom , non DOM Then you see DOM and opposite DOM you believe TA is predictive (another unneccesity) and you use OODA to BET. What is coming is not a rational thing to an OODA predictor. It is non DOM, DOM. OODA does NOT allow this as an accumulating astatistical reasoned BET. A person goes in to the market in the non DOM direction, and AS YOU SAY ABOVE, he gets his ass handed to him when the DOM rages off into the other direction. So what I do is weed out people who can THINK. I Give them drills to do that build their minds UNCONSCIOUSLY. They sleep, they wakeup with aha's. their minds are build unconsciously by turning short term memory into reinforced long term memory. So we have arrived at "street smart" Karate. That is what happens to Jon Netto and I when we are trading in public. How do marine snipers get to be shartshooter traders in commodities with 8 and 9 digit money. They do not die when they are in the Marines being snipers to protect their squads. they did the drills and can draw a beat on anything that shows no matter how small. I typed the order of event that interlock ES and YM. I put up the 10 cases and showed over and over the order of events from case to case when between nodes following a link. I can see a leaf move before it moves in the jungle. I do partial fills @ five times market capacity. Almost all traders are fucked. They trade with three emotions (anxiety, fear and anger) when I was most acitve and trading max NFA accounts and plagued by SEC citations, I was referred to by brokerage owners as STEELY COLD. When they were vomitting I was doing the calls to the tick. Trends follow triads. indicators all follow triads. to measure velocity you compare over time and SEE acceleration and deceleration . Up/down thinking is the KISSS OF DEATH. MACD GOT ITS NAME FROM SOMEONE WHO SET MILESTONES. MACD IS A TWO LINE INDICATOR ALL BASED ON TRIADS.