3 months=$81 per barrel oil; 6 months=$100 per barrel

Discussion in 'Economics' started by michaelscott, Apr 23, 2007.

  1. In 3 months we should be seeing $81 per barrel oil. The latest bull run has yielded a $17+ price increase. The pitch of the run has not changed and is rushing up a tight trend box in an alarming fashion.

    If oil can close over $68, then we will make it to $80. A close over $80 will definately send us to $100.

    For all of those that do not know, the latest macro correction is called a "measured move" with the next leg up $51.03+the price difference of the advance from 2003 to $79.86. I believe the price in 2003 was $13 per barrel. Therefore, the price target comes to $117.89. At the end of the second leg up, then we should see an oil bear market.

    Using the golden number on the last bull market in the late 70s, that should be $82X1.618= 132.67. This equation is debatable because the inflation adjusted price of oil is debatable. Therefore, I believe the range should be $110 at the low end and $140 at the high end.
  2. Sounds good to my, my Mercedes get 40 mpg.
  3. S2007S


    that would be real interesting scenario.

  4. And that, my friend, will signal the beginning of a 'real' bear stock market.
  5. oil over $85 a barrel will lead the U.S., now precariously perched on the edge, right over it, and into recession.
  6. S2007S


    As much I could agree with that statement I just cant. I thought that the economy would go into some sort of slowdown when OIL was reaching 60, 65,70, but nothing happened, all they did was pass it onto the consumer which you thought would slow down the economy, but nothing yet. Maybe $4+gas and 80+ oil could slow down consumer spending. Seems the consumer always has some credit somewhere to borrow at 14%.