3/31 UVXY Oversold @ $5.65?

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by KCalhoun, Mar 31, 2021.

  1. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun Sponsor

    i'll buy >6 (not trade reco).. buying a bit here


    uvxy31mara.jpg uvxy31marb.jpg
     
  2. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun Sponsor

    bought just a few $k for swing

    uvxy31marc.jpg
     
    Tradex likes this.
  3. guru

    guru

    Definitely not oversold. This thing is never oversold because its price doesn't depend on how many people sell it. It's based on the pricing of hedging (SPX options) and those are quickly losing value as they've been overpriced for too long. Together with VIX futures contango (http://vixcentral.com/) and hedge funds restarting to sell $billions in volatility (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...g-is-back-as-ex-harvest-traders-join-the-fray), the volatility and UVXY seem to be back to common low vol regime where UVXY disappears in front of our eyes...
     
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  4. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun Sponsor

    Good points, thx..... this is a buy the dip, sell the rip play... VIX is at the low end of recent range. I'll give it a few days, will scale out under 4.7 or in over 6. Loss of 10 was major breakdown, now near 5 seems extended. We'll see
     
  5. there's a mathematical science behind this product you dont seem to understand.
     
  6. never2old

    never2old

    with ^VIX ... what goes up (eventually) comes down - ride the wave.

    at last today $17, its too pricey

    at $30 its put time

    with UVXY over time it will always decay, just look at the history of the reverse splits
     
  7. never2old

    never2old


    unless you were out at $5.79, you got stung
     
  8. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Vix @14 seems almost a given.
    13 even.
    If nothing changes.
     

  9. Oh I think Ken gets it, and given that he will probably lose on the trade, but UVXY can SKYROCKET despite that mathematical science. I mean 200%, 300%, plus, the sky is the limit.

    Good luck Ken! Actually, if UVXY goes up big that means the market is almost certainly going down big. So crash and burn Ken!!!! :)
     

  10. Yup. Its heading back down again very likely unless something very unexpected happens. I doubt we'll see it in the 9s or 8s or 7s (? forgot exactly how low we went) again, like we saw a few years back for awhile. But when I tested it the mean since it was around appeared to be in the mid 17s. And its coming off a very high level last year, likely going to trend lower just like vanzandt said. 14s, 13s is nothing at all that unusual for the VIX, it spends significant amounts of time down there.

    So Ken, you got your trade cut out for you!!!
     
    #10     Apr 7, 2021