Great topic. They each have their advantages. In poker, you can have a poor hand with poor odds and bluff through to a win. That's good. But also, in poker, you lose all of what you bet when you lose; which is bad. In trading I can be wrong and still win. Say I'm a directional trader and I'm trying to pick up or down. Assume those are 50/50 odds, and let's assume that I pick the right one. Next step is to execute the entry. I have about a 50 cent margin that I'm guessing the start of the move. And just for the sake of arguement, let's say the odds of getting that right within 50 cents is also 50/50 (probably much less though). So to get the direction and the entry right I have a 1/4 chance. Then the market moves in my favor. Next step. Is this downward movement a counter-trend? Or a reversal? 50/50 chance. In other words, do I hold or sell? Repeat that step until your answer changes to "reversal." Maybe 2 or 3 times. So the chances of doing a perfect trade are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 or 1/32. Then the chances of doing two perfect trades in a row is 1/32 x 1/32 or 1/1024. The advantage to trading, over poker, is that once I get passed the first 1/4 (being right on the direction and the entry point), I'm not going to lose any part of my bet. I can be wrong at any point in the future and still take something off the table. Continuing to be right only optimizes my winnings. Poker has more clearly defined odds, and more clearly defined risk, but I've never been a career poker player. So I have to say trading is easier.
We all know the low percentage of successful traders... I just saw a poker show where they related that Daniel Negranu had entered about 40 tournaments and cashed in only 6. I also recall another quip about a tournament with a $5,000 buy-in, with re-buys allowed. Scotty Nguyen, former WSOP Main Event Chamion, had done 31, "re-buys", and still failed to cash. Poker is tough, too.
J.Joseph is right. unfortunately bluffing doesnt help you in the markets. you can bluff all your money with an all in trade, the market does not care about it. trading should be like playing poker with knowing your hand before you bet. you should have at least a Flush with an Ace or four of a kind. and that together with an joker, out of jail card, so that if you cant loose, if someone beats you with an straigth flush or royal flush. then he wins the pot, but you can use your out of jail joker card and dont loose anything. that is how trading should be. unfortunately part 2 is that you must wait and wait, what is really boring, to get such an good hand before betting. trading is boring. if you cant do this, how i described above. you better play poker, there is the action, and maybe your odds are better than in your trading. it all depends of the skills of the player/trader. nothing is easy. i bet with you there are pro poker players who make a very good living of it, who could not make it as a trader. its the emotional personal thing you need to have in this games to succeed. you must have felt the pain of struggling on the way to success, that makes the difference of feeling it is easy or not.
At most levels, poker is easier because you can play crap players at lower limits and beat them relatively easily. At the top level, markets are easier, because your competition is the average mutual, pension, and hedge fund manager i.e. someone who can't beat the S&P. Whereas at the top level of poker, your competition is the top 5-6 players in the world.
yes. maybe the toppic of the thread should be "what is easier to make a living of it, poker or trading?" ??? poker could be easier for that, if you play against beginners on 4 tables at the same time. but its also very stressing to make a living of it if you have to make a certain money every day to survive. but poker you can play also on the weekend, thats cool. if you want to get rich, make minimum a million or so, poker sucks. its better to play betting games with big companies, like banks or so, than with companies like pokerstars or fulltiltpoker which always have problems with the gambling laws of the different countries. especially a problem for US citizien. how much safe is your money with that companies ??? who knows ??? do you think there is poker player who makes a living on it, by just playing in the casino - not online ??? (expect the ones who won million $ tournaments, that have done also not pro players, its a luck factor). ????