I had a few people ask me to give them an update on what I've been up to. Unlike some of the trolls on here, I trade for a living so my time is fairly limited. Luckily, I'm taking the week off to move into my new place and found some time laying around collecting dust and decided. HEY! What the hell.. Let me show these old bastards what progress looks like. The first chart is the 120 minute time-frame, the second is the 60 minute time-frame. Below the 120 minute chart is the secret sauce, holy grail or whatever you want to call it. Won't go into detail about this so please save your keystrokes. Whenever the histogram (white line) crosses and closes below or above one of the yellow dashed lines, it's a signal. The "holy grail" is set to a 60 minute timeframe as well. I only trade in the direction of the weekly candle and bullish reversals on bearish candle and vice-versa. The yellow dots located within the 120 minute candle is the 60 minute close price. I trade Nadex ATM Intraday contracts that last 1 hour with a profit target of $30 per contract. If you're any good at studying charts, you'll see the power of this method pretty quick.
I like this. Your charts have a certain simplicity, or perhaps it would be more accurate to say a "marked economy of graphics" that, from my perspective, lends credence to your system. In my experience with life in general, things that work well tend to have a certain "elegance" about them. What you have described and displayed here comes across as totally logical and has an appearance of validity that you no doubt know to be more that just a surface-level "impression." Thanks for sharing!
Looks interesting. I haven’t looked much into Nadex so just a quick question: how do you backtest these trades? Using some Nadex option history, or just Forex data and projecting Nadex option prices?
I section the chart off in sessions and I go back month by month and test that way. I go as far as the data will let me go back. I noticed that this method works in all market conditions.
Yes, I've traded this live but at the moment I use the same strategy but on a daily contract with a 3pm EST expiry time. I also use the weekly strike prices as pivots. I've noticed that the data feed can sometimes be a few second ahead in tradingview compared to other platforms as well. I would guess that this would only help you when automating your strategy.
I was more referring to backtest results having lookahead bias (so being a few seconds ahead is not relevant.)
The key for me seems to be three specific moving averages used within a particular time frame. I enter long positions at the yellow boxes and exit at the blue, then enter short positions at the red boxes and exit at the purple. (I'm currently in the process of looking for a coder to create a corresponding expert advisor [EA] for me.)
forgive me for not getting back to you. I find myself with very little free time lately. That's something I'm working on changing. I've refined my strategy and am now applying it in the Spot FX markets with pretty nice results when I tested it manually. Have a look at the set-up below.. Pretty much going against the grain using inverted breakouts, TZ and Donchian.