Correction: the compounding was calculated by weekly for the above model; if compounding by monthly, it would take 10 months to reach 1 million. Still remarkable. In brief, this kind of performance would need 3 major factors: 1) ability to identify correct trading window and pinpoint proper entry and exit signals; 2) market availability: some day market offers more opportunity than the other, wisely accept it and act accordingly; 3) mental control and discipline.
The problem is you can’t extrapolate a daily performance over 10 months. This only would be astonishing. I believe @hurricane_sh is over betting. So just the performance of not blowing up over 200 days would be a great start.
Not daily performance of 200 days of trading, but a total of 40 events (4 week X 10 month). 25% for one week, if counted as one event, meaning that you manage to get 25% for a whole week. Or in the latter model, it is only 10 events (10 month) meaning that gaining 100% per month, no matter how you do it. It is only a model and in reality it is extremely hard to achieve, of course.
IN other words, lets say, if you have $1000, and it takes 31 steps to reach a million (25% per step and compound every step); and depending on market availability (presume you have the ability and discipline), sometime it takes a day to complete one step, but sometime it takes one week to complete it, or two weeks, or a month; and sometime you can take a break from the journey but return when you feel ready; then at the end of 31 steps, you accomplish your goal of one million profit. Right now on ET there is a guy posting honest daily journal doing 2% gain average every day and he has accomplished it so far and keeps going strong; he started with $2000, and by rough calculation, he just finished his 6th steps out of 28 steps (28 step to one million with starting point of $2000) related to the calculation in above model.
Not compounding? If you have $1000, you can buy only 3 share of SPY, when you have $100,000, you still buy 3 shares, not 300?
My comment is about the topic overall and not any particular post. But still, trading (not investing) is all about consistency not compounding.
Consistency if you trade to put food on the table. Compounding if you trade to be rich. Consistency and compounding if you trade to be a billionaire.
Sure you're not there already and that it's merely a matter of growing your account (instead of withdrawing)...? Or are these 5 figure traders making that return on a similar capital base as you? You're only scalping equities by the way? Not futures? Nice job.