25 year Trend Following System: Verified Real-Time Performance

Discussion in 'Trading' started by quantzack, Jan 27, 2007.

  1. All,
    Would anyones portfolio benefit from having invested in this trading system over the past 25 years? Its not daytrading futures, but gives good solid consistent returns over the long-term (I have no association with them, but do own shares of their Mutual Fund of Funds; symbol: FUNDX).

    FundX is a trend-following/"upgrading" system for trading mutual funds with an excellent 25 year record of independently verified performance of trading with trend-following rules:


    Upgrading Follows Market Leadership/Trend-following:
    Upgrading is based upon the observation that few, if any, money managers consistently excel. Instead, we observe a wide range of performance returns, typically with only a small percentage of professional money managers ever invested in the right sectors of the equity market at any given time.

    This is because each money manager has a particular style that works well in some, but not all market environments. Market leadership rotates between large-cap and small-cap stocks, growth and value styles of investing, international and domestic areas. Leadership changes because economic conditions change. But most fund managers don't change their particular styles when the market leadership changes.

    Since market leadership is forever rotating, we move incrementally toward the top ranked funds by progressively selling the lower ranked funds and reinvesting in the new leaders. This continuous process provides an effective way to participate successfully in a broad range of investment opportunities as they develop.

    #1 out of 13 newsletters for 25 years.
    #1 out of 30 newsletters for 20 years.

    Source: Hulbert Financial Digest - July 2005
  2. spinoza


    Dude,you are way out in left field on posting about mutual fund trading here at ET.

    You are right, FundX system has earned 18%/yr since 1980. However, ET folks like me do not want to know about low-cost infrequently trading trend following systems like that.

    ET people need to satisfy our compulsive desire to over-trade.

    We care less about earning consistent money for our families with proven systems. Instead, we want to have a "full-time job of trading" and reinventing the wheel.

    Keeps us from having to get a real job, I guess.....(I am guilty too...)

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  3. Preserve


    If you like the idea of great returns with no trading, look past mutual funds to Unit Investment Trusts. How about a real-time average annual return of 25+% since 1/85?

    The problem with mutual funds is that managers often don't follow consistent rules in making their decisions and are largely emotion driven - many times the herd instinct kicks in - they don't want to be left behind when others go with the trend.

    In contrast, a Unit Investment Trust only buys and sells based on specific rules, and those have produced attractive returns.

    "Begin with the 100 stocks that Value Line currently gives a #1 ranking for Timeliness.... Purchase a market cap-weighted portfolio of the 25 stocks with the best overall ranking on the following criteria:
    *12 month price appreciation
    *6 month price appreciation
    *Return on assets
    *Price to cash flow"

    As with quantzack "I have no association with them"