i must say this shit is funny because some of it will happen and some won't. but in the end I think these private equity groups will be like investors in the housing market they will be buying all these companies on the highs and get ass raped all the way down to were they shudder there doors. I think alot of hedge funds and banks will take it in the ass because again they are all buying the highs and paying premiums for it. I think in the next month or so I want start selling shovels on wall street, the reason being they will need something to scrap the bodies off the sidewalks when the eventual ass raping begins and they start leaping out of the buildings. if one of you wants I will go partners on a powerwashing business so the pedistrians don't have to see blood after we remove the bodies!! everything is starting to look like the japanese at the end of the 80's beginning of the 90's!! p.s. happy channukah!!
[snip]......everything is starting to look like the japanese at the end of the 80's beginning of the 90's!! ------------------------ Yes it is.
Another great Doug Kass call one year ago: Mister Softee Looks to Eat Google's Lunch http://www.thestreet.com/_tsccom/markets/dougkassfree/10255303.html
#1 - Huge elite globalized multinational corporations kick millions more in the a$$ with another big wealth transfer - get ready!!!
Great Post! lots of fun. I only strongly disagree with the political part. If Hill doesn't run, its cause she'll take the Senate leadership, which she has already been offered in 2008. The Dem party knows she can't win the whole shibang. I could see a Gore vs Edwards though. Gore just can't help himself, and he has the money to run (Google riches). No way possible Condi is running. She has never been a fan of the whole campaign process. Can't blame her. Its going to be McCain vs Romney.
25 Takes on 2007 Surprises, Part 2 By James Altucher Kass starts to get into Nostradamus mode with surprises 14 through 25; take 14, for instance: 14. "A well-known corporate raider finds himself with a concentrated portfolio ... and suffers large losses." Every year we're going to experience an Amaranth or two. The important thing about these big losers is that our economy has shown an astonishing ability to bandage itself when there are holes. Long Term Capital Management's disaster was enough to cause chaos back in 1998. In 2006, Amaranth -- which had significantly larger losses -- caused barely a ripple. Same will go for the big losers of 2007. 15. Cyberterrorism. These bad apples are trying and failing, trying and failing. I can guarantee that on July 4, 2007, the Internet will not be ineffective due to cyberterrorism. Doug, I will instant message you on July 4 to wish you a happy Independence Day. 16. Newt Gingrich for president? I sincerely hope not. 17. SAC Capital Partners' Steve Cohen acquires majority control of the New York Yankees. It would be great for the Yankees and NYC if Stevie Cohen took over. Kass, I hope you're right; if this comes to pass, I might actually attend the third baseball game of my life. 18. Wal-Mart's funk continues. Kass specifies that Wal-Mart (WMT) will report five consecutive months of negative same-store sales. I don't even understand how this could happen, mathematically. And where would everybody be shopping in that case? Target (TGT) ? Dollar General (DG) ? Kass is saying that a combination of deflationary winds blowing plus a general consumer slowdown that could affect high-end purchases will cause problems. Maybe, but why didn't that happen this year when all the car companies fell apart and housing prices slumped? Incomes went up, the stock market went up, and global expansion continued, which all ultimately drive sales to companies such as Wal-Mart. 19. "Google marches on ... and dramatically exceeds ... expectations." I agree, but only because of the trend that online advertising, fueled by a growing economy, is going to keep booming, and Google (GOOG) gets the bulk of that revenue. However, I believe Yahoo! (YHOO) is the better bet in 2007. Kass also believes legislators will question Google's monopoly in 2007. I guess anything can happen, but right now there are many, many choices of online ad platforms, and growing competitors such as Yahoo!'s Panama, Adbrite and even StumbleUpon will force Google to keep being competitive. 20. Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden found dead. Maybe. 21. Corruption scandals in Russia hit emerging markets in 2007. Uh, haven't there been nonstop corruption scandals there already? The government walked in and took over the biggest oil company and sold off all the assets -- and that still didn't scare people out of doing business there. 22. "A large hedge fund lowers its ... fees ... lead [ing] to a 50% reduction in the number of hedge funds." I totally agree with this one. Hedge funds are beginning to resemble large money management firms and even institutions like banks. And, in fact, the bigger funds are getting bought by banks and going public. You can't charge 2 and 20 in an environment like this. Particularly, you can't charge it when firms like WisdomTree are going to introduce actively managed ETFs that consistently outperform the hedge funds. It's over, guys. I feel bad for the reverse commuters reading The Wall Street Journal on the train to Greenwich, Conn. 23. Ugh, I can't even type about stocks anymore. Kass predicted something about stocks here, but my eyes can't focus anymore. 24. Maria Bartiromo goes to The View. Doug, I hope you're right. I'll start watching it then. If Ellen DeGeneres goes with her, it's a clincher for me. [ ] 25. "Mad Money" goes prime-time on CBS in early 2007. I don't know anything about Cramer's contract with CNBC, but I have to think before anything like that happens that Cramer will first do a reality show where he allocates aspiring young hedge fund managers some of his personal money and then drills them, Lightning Round style, on their picks. We follow the contestants while they visit companies and CEOs, talk to analysts, visit some of the great hedge funds and watch them trade, and the eventual winner gets his own hedge fund. I would watch such a show religiously. Final note to Kass: Try not to worry so much. In March-April 2003, I felt like we were Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, both bullish when everything looked like it was falling apart. What happened, Doug? What happened?!
Not really. Before you say smth like that you need to check out some of these PE firms and who they really are. Also, the LBO is only the first step of the process. At the core, it's just more paper pushing, these guys know what they are doing. It will probably end just like it did back in 1960s merger mania.