This is exactly right. They will start phasing it out because you need to force people back to work, but they’re not going to end it cold turkey with an election coming up. I see $300 extra thru Sept and then $150/wk extra thru the end of the year (or something similar)
Why "boost" consumer spending? Consumers were spending what they were when they were getting their paychecks in February. Now they get laid-off, and are still getting their same salaries. So they will spend the same. The smarter of them would have spent LESS, and been socking away the money they saved on travel expenses (if any) for a rainy-day fund, in case they could not get old job back and had to use those funds to find other work. I am simplifying it here, but you get my drift.
If you are collecting unemployment and your employer calls you back to work you can't refuse to work. Otherwise you automatically lose your unemployment benefits.
sounds berry bearish ! However, I aint shorting nothin till the market agrees. At this point if martians came down to earth, I think the first thing people would do is buy stocks, than run for the hills... Im not into currency markets, but Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc...all had a printer but there is a reason I call the one here the "magic printer". There is a lot of big banks, from central(political) to private that are holding the $US as their reserve (to say nothing of the major corporations and wealthy individuals), from what I briefly read (I could be mistaken) after WW2 most of western Europe realized since most of their cities had been destroyed (not much to bank their currency on) they'd adopt the US Dollar as their reserve, eventually much of the world decided to follow. Ill give you an example, you could be in a market in a village 200 miles from the nearest regional airport, in Mongolia, Mozambique, Peru, you will have a merchant ready to trade you whatever the **** he has for some crisp Bennies, try offering him MX Pesos, JPY, even EURO... This my trading friends is what makes the printer truly "magic", at some point of course there will be some inflation. China probably will not like a weak dollar as it will raise the cost of their exports to the US market. however comparing it to Weimer Germany or Zimbawbe I think is a tad bit dramatic.
Hahahahahahaha cmon man. People are probably working and collecting at the same time. Just like some PPP loan went to people who didnt need it. Money was returned in some cases. Stimulus went to dead people etc. the system can’t handle what we just went through without massive fraud, errors etc. there’s not enough manpower to catch the cheaters.
Here's the deal. Inflation is supposed to be a measure of growth since it's associated with economic output. Theoretically, when the economy is growing, money is flowing into the hands of consumers and so it will increase aggregate demand. Demand increases push prices up unless there is a commensurate increase in supply, according to the theories. Basically, as the cost of financing gets cheaper, projects which were previously not profitable become profitable, and business plans which were not feasible become credit worthy. This results in the creation of credit and therefore increase in the money supply. The Fed will call this 'accommodative policy' (pursuing the dual mandate). The problem is that money is essentially a commodity that the central banks control, kind of like OPEC wants to control the price of oil. All the banks agree to suppress rates, make money cheap, and induce actors within the economy to take risks. Then they all basically fix the exchange rates so none of the currencies blow up. It's a dirty game. The problem is the money is just driving index returns and pumping unsustainable bubbles in risk assets. This creates moral hazard because everybody knows the banks will just bail everyone out when the shit hits the fan. It's such sure thing even Bill Ackman can make it work. (more specific to the phrased question, Zimbabwe and Venezuela were never part of the global banking cartel that runs shit.)
It's foreign holders, myself included that are keeping the dollar inflation low. It's starting to look bad, USD is not performing well against anything it seems.