I figure the market sells off regardless, unless they do something super-aggressive, like 50 on the FF, and 75 on the discount. Actually, 75 on the discount all by itself, regardless of the FF, would probably instigate still more rallying. But that's an outside possibility, and on any other combo of actions I'm figuring we sell the news.
25bps so as not to disappoint wall street (although it's kind of ridiculous at this point). Initial selloff on disappointment (actually short term overbought sentiment). Possible initial burst fakout, then selloff into close. Either way, I expect some selloff action. My 2c.
no rate change = market drops 1.5-2% by the 4pm closing .25 bps cut market, dow trades flat to down .50 in my opinion is COMPLETELY PRICED IN, however im sure this may push the dow above 13850 I think they cut .25 and the discount rate by .50. Would be extremely surprised to see the dow up triple digits, if this does happen it may be time to go short in the short term.
guy on bloomberg said the fed is behind the curb and that he is looking for 50bp cut and 75 bp on the discount rate. hahahahah, not happening.
Agree. Though, I don't think they're going to get full 50. Fed should give zero. But, we all know that would cause market implosion. Couldn't disappoint the big boys, since they are letting out 3billion dollar writeoffs daily now, in order to get the dirty laundry out by EOY. No, have to look responsible, yet save markets at same time. 25bps.
no rate cut and look for a 5% drop in the markets, i dont think they want that ahead of the holidays so i guess they will give at least a .25.