I'm long the ES Sept. futures, counting on support at about 1540.00 on the cash. I backed up the truck around 1500.00 and am long 36: 1550.50 * 1 1550.25 * 3 1550.00 * 5 1549.75 * 14 1549.50 * 5 1549.25 * 7 1549.00 * 1 Aint saying I won't average down, but it looks like a long nite. If it starts going up, I may sell early. I've got sell orders for 5 at 1555.00, 5 at 1552.50 and 5 at 1557.25. Since buying more than 15, I haven't considered where I'll sell. The bid/ask is 1549.00/1549.25, looks tempting on the ask, but I'll save some fire power for later.
Fades work well when the cash market is on and arbitrage programs come in, but thats not until tomorrow morning. Who knows how low it could go before the market opens.
when extreme emotion is involved on a upward trending market, the countertrend corrections will be sharp and swift. the countertrend emotional trade is one of the lowest risk trades around. the intraday tick noise retraces or chances of hitting stops become less, and price just keeps extending its waterfall declines.
Good luck man.... wonder what sidewalk I would have found you on after feb.27th trading like this. It only takes once....
trendy is at 37-38 10 points away. Notice the thieves kept selling it hard. And sold hard last few minutes before the close, and sold night session last night. information is a unsurpassed edge. The only way to decipher it, is look for extraneous patterns in normal trading for a tip off, since orderflow is hard to hide.
I gotta get my black box running. It wouldn't find "bargains." Ask dropped to 1548.25. Long 51 now. Starting to think I've gotta reduce risk.