I think they will fail, because they did not grasp the reason why USA has been successful. If one want to be in innovation, one needs free thinking and rule of law, wealth (which they have), capital markets (which they have). Singapore is missing the free thinking and rule of law (genuine one). In other words, Singapore needs to become a republic to be involved in high margin innovation businesses. I doubt that the elite in Singapore would want a republic in singapore. Singapore understood that difference because Malaysia learned their recipe and is eating their lunch, but they have to get rid of the CEO mentality to get to the next level. I read that they sue people for being critical of Government, when in fact they should invest and reward people who critique them. They think of a critique as a liability when in an innovation-based society and economy, critique and questioning is the life blood of that society/economy. Compare Bush years and Clinton years. Clinton years attracted innovation, capital, and fostered an American mind that thought that there is no limit to what can be achieved. Bush years, the opposite process. Thanks to the limit on the number of years in office. Also think of Obama's hope. It reflects people craving for innovation, and positive outwardly thinking.
I am sure there is leeway here and there, actually leaving Singapore aside that same topic is addressed by Fogel in this very article, he writes, ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For instance, there is an annual meeting of Chinese economists called the Chinese Economists Society. I have participated in many of them. There are people in attendance who are very critical of the Chinese government -- and very openly so. Of course, they are not going to say "down with Hu Jintao," but they may point out that the latest decision by the finance ministry is flawed or raise concerns about a proposed adjustment to the prices of electricity and coal, or call attention to issues of equity. They might even publish a critical letter in a Beijing newspaper. Then the Chinese finance minister might actually call them up and say: "Will you get some of your people together? We would like to have some of our people meet with you and find out more about what you are thinking." Many people don't realize such back-and-forth occurs in Beijing.
Obama is a Community Organizer while Hu Jintao is a hydraulics engineer reputedly with a photographic memory. Which country do you think is at the disadvantage here?
A free society is measured not by what you can say, but by what you cannot say (which should be none). The fact that the free thinkers in china are outside and looking in, when the less innovative guys are in control, is a symptom of the malaise. Look at their attitude. The guys who are doing the inviting would not exist in a free society, because the innovative guys will be inside and in control. In a republic, words/decisions of a president "Hu Jintao" are not a fiat authority. In a republic, "Hu Jintao" can go to a court and seek justice like anyone else if he feels some injured him by saying " Down Down Hu Jintao". In current China, even the people who are close to "Hu Jintao" know that they cannot say what they think. So imagine the guys outside of the circle of influence, and have something to say. You would probably here only from the most frustrated people, and they would speak about hunger or something of that nature, because innovation/thoughts is the highest levels in human basic needs. You will hear about it the last, when an innovation-based society needs it to be uttered the first.
China, because the wealth of a nation is not about one guy, but about the sum of all guys and the environment in which they interact. I would take the Obamas anytime, and hire the Hu Jintaos for $5 an hour. If Jintao applies to work in the USA, I bet that he will not get hired, because there are better engineers than him at a lower cost. Obama understands the value of freedom,and the potential of a republic as a collection of people. In a free society, if I were to hear "Down Down Name" and I disagree, I would respond "Up Up Name". So a view against another view, and the right one would prevail.
of course all empires are unified in its own, but was China ever united in full size? Khan's era was the biggest ever. there is a reason TIME voted Khan as the Man of the Millenium. btw, Qing Dynasty was ruled by the Manchurians who were viewed as foreigners during most of their reign. just another argument for China never being fully united.
sorry boss. 3 or 4 technical experts have clearly said that after the current correction in China is over, the next bullmarket will be its most powerful leg up. Given that the past leg up into 2008 lasted decades and decades (lack of Price data here) its not hard to envision China being #1 within the next 25 years. My own view of the monthly for China is in line with what these experts are suggesting. China is the next superpower.
It is clear to those who visited China that they are the next superpower. They have both superior workforce, better educated elites and are on a clear path to becoming industrial and economic power house. The argument that the US has better education, more freedom more capital is just wishful thinking. Many (not all) Americans are intellectually on the level of Jersey Shore stars. Then there is the debt, economy that hinges on service sector and failing education system that cannot compete with what is needed in order to pull this country out of its troubles. If nothing changes, it is only a matter ofr time before we will join the ranks of the rest of the world making 5x less in real purchasing power and having a standard of living somewhere between Mexico and Brazil. In the past, war was generally the solution. Perhaps one day we will wake up to a story of a new asian flu which by the time anybody who is targeted realizes, will eliminate 80% of the manpower of the Chinese. A scenario I am prying would never happen, but do not count it out.
wow man you are one deluded fool. Government healthcare, takeover of GM, redistribution, stimulus, bailouts etc..... and you are dumb enough to say Obama understands the value of freedom? The trend is obvious and strong, China is fast assuming the next superpower role. Militarily as well. It is amazing at how fast China caught up. It was probably helped through spying and less than honorly means, but clearly they have the capacity to push it very far. China, has another very strong advantage- homogenaity. They don't have large underperforming minorities demanding their fair share, they don't have a large economically draining illegal immigrant population demanding their rights. China laughs at our diversity bullshit.
You forgot to mention Obama is a step up from Bush. Bush was a escaped zoo monkey who sold America to the Chinese.