First of all, try to keep this on a non-personal level and do not make any references to me, my kids, my work or anything else because you have no idea what I do, how much I have worked in my life, etc. Then, learn that hard work and wealth have no corelaltion. Otherwise, all the slaves would have been rich. Your thinking defies common knowledge, history and experience.
The same thing happened with Japan in the 1970s, hitting 8 percent growth in GDP...being predicted to take over the US because of their free market. We saw what happened there. Their growth is not sustainable. 66% of their population is broke farmers who can barely afford to live. I am tired of seeing all these posts saying how China will take over the US.
Yes, China will export 3X what the world uses. China is highly dependent on what the world buys from it. But unless Venus, Mars, Jupiter and a few other planets start importing their goods, this is nothing but sheer speculation. Similar to the people here who have a system that will make them a trillionaire in 26 months... China depends on a bunch of idiot countries to keep buying their stuff, while they try to buy little back from these countries.
China would get old, before it gets rich, because of the one child policy of the past. The stock market in that country would fall rapidly when the time comes, particularly given the psychology of the Chinese investing crowds.
First of all, perhaps you're not familiar with "you" as a literary device... but not only do I not have any idea what you or your kids do, I don't really care. None of us on this thread are discussing your personal qualities. Replace "you" with "average American", and revisit the discussion. Well, you're the second to make the above comment. Really makes me optimistic about the future of America! I suspect the earlier generations that really made America great are more or less turning over in their graves that this is now something of an established mindset. I certainly don't feel this way, and I certainly will do my best to make sure my children don't adopt such a mindset. "Slaves" are not at all a good counter example. After all, hard-working slaves had as much wealth as lazy slaves: zero. Slave-owners, on the other hand, were able to acquire wealth by holding political and military power and dictating how it were to be distributed. That's what you're really implying. Well, hopefully we're speaking of the modern globalized world where capital (human and financial) flow more or less freely. Let's talk about that context, shall we? (And within the slave-owner class, I would speculate that greater wealth was still correlated with harder work.) Let me help you out with this discussion. Before we talk about (average) Americans versus (average) Chinese in 2040, let's talk about 2010. Why is the average American today 10x more economically productive (indisputable) than the average Chinese? In my eyes, one answer: capital. America has accumulated a great deal more financial and intellectual capital. Intellectual capital: the American working population in 2010 is FAR better educated than the Chinese working population. Probably something like 1-3% of the Chinese working population has a college degree, and probably only 20-30% have even a 12th grade education... I suspect the comparable American ratios are 10x and 3x greater, respectively. The American working population is also far more skilled than the Chinese working population. There are three generations of workers in the workforce, with a great amount of expertise in the system. In China, the *most* experienced entrepreneurs/lawyers/accountants will only have about 20 years of working experience... and the vast majority will have far less. Financial capital: Americans make more because they're already wealthy. Three generations as an industrial superpower means American households and corporations control a vast amount of financial capital. Majority of American domestic spending gets recycled in the American economy, American industrial infrastructure remains far superior, etc, etc, etc. Make 3% a year (average GDP growth) off of $1mm, and that $30k in new growth is still a lot more than the Chinese economy growing 8% a year off of $50,000 (=$4000). This is why Americans are wealthy today, and why basket-weavers in Indonesia or engineers in China are poor (in relative terms). Now, I ask you again... what specific factors preclude China from being far wealthier in 30 years? Why will the average American child born today make much more than the average Chinese child born today? On my part, I believe the human capital gap will have closed, and I believe the financial capital gap will also have closed.
This is nonsense in my mind. Clearly the population will get older, and in other nations that would clearly imply the population will get *poorer*.... because workers drop as a % of overall population. In many countries, having one worker economically support two parents and four grandparents is a recipe for poverty. The situation in China is very different. The "older" generations are literally barely literate rice farmers, while the "newer" generations replacing them are often educated engineers. In my opinion, 1 educated engineer is far more economically productive than 4 illiterate rice farmers. Growth will still be affected, but it will not be as dramatic as some seem to hope.
1. Heech: "Why is the average American today 10x more economically productive (indisputable) than the average Chinese?" Because the American is involved in high margin businesses, while the Chinese is involved in low margin businesses. Example: the American designs a better chip (high margin), while the Chinese manufactures the chip (Low margin). A 25% margin is better that 25 times 1% margin. If you doubt this, check the stock valuations. 2. Chinese engineer is currently involved in low margin risky businesses because they are movable. Singapore is probably the only country in the world that understood this phenomenon and is heavily giving cash to American universities to position itself in high margin businesses, but Singapore might fail because innovation cannot be imported because it resides in the mind of individuals. It however has pre-requisites such as a free, and clean society ruled by law. They have the "clean" part. They need rule of law and freedoms, and an education system that values innovation.