2040 China, a 123 trillion dollar economy?!?!?!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by MohdSalleh, Aug 7, 2010.

  1. Okay so by his calculations, USA will still have highest GDP per capita but how can the world support another 1 billion + people with 2x the GDP per capita of the average European? Do we have even have enough resources for that?

    I also lol'ed at "European culture continues to prize long vacations, early retirements, and shorter work weeks over acquiring more stuff, at least in comparison to many other developed countries,such as the United States." Maybe thats where the USA is headed :D

    *China’s estimated economy by the year 2040. Be warned.

    Robert Fogel is director of the Center for Population Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and winner of the 1993 Nobel Prize in Economics

    In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a super rich country in2040. Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China's share of global GDP -- 40 percent -- will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent)30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like.

    And Europe? Europe, by which I mean the 15 earliest EU members, faces twin challenges of demography and culture, its economic future burdened by a mix of reproductive habits and consumer restraint. The population of Western European countries has been aging rapidly, and that is likely to continue over the next several decades.

    Europe's culture confounds economists.Citizens of Europe's wealthy countries are not working longer hours to make higher salaries and accumulate more goods. Rather, European culture continues to prize long vacations, early retirements, and shorter work weeks over acquiring more stuff, at least in comparison to many other developed countries,such as the United States.

    To the West, the notion of a world in which the center of global economic gravity lies in Asia may seem unimaginable. But it wouldn't be the first time. As China scholars, who take a long view of history, often point out, China was the world's largest economy for much of the last two millennia.(Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, reckons China has been the globe's top economy for 18 of the past 20 centuries.) While Europe was fumbling in the Dark Ages and fighting disastrous religious wars, China cultivated the highest standards of living in the world. Today, the notion of arising China is, in Chinese eyes, merely a return to the status quo.

    Full Article:
  2. These fools who write this shit are a bunch of monkeys. All they do is extrapolate past data into the future, nothing more.

    As soon as Chinese stuff gets a bit more pricey (in a few years) their "growth" is done. They will no longer be competitive. Manufacturers will move to some other area or move it back to US/Europe. That's already beginning, actually.

    Who's going to "finance" all those $trillions in trade deficits???

    The *problem* all along has been the stupidity/greedy US consumer & multinational demanding cheaper stuff from China producing 100's/billions in trade deficits & bringing Western economies to their knees.

    That will not continue, unless the Chinese finance those $trillions into infinity!
  3. Agreed, agreed, and mostly because of their creativity as shown below ...... :) :)

    Creative Chinese chef without utensils can still find ways to stir soup

    Chinese couple who have white baby, name it Sum Ting Wong


    Sid and Al were sitting in a Chinese restaurant. “Sid,” asked Al, “are there any Jews in China?” “I don’t know,” Sid replied. “Why don’t we ask the waiter?” When the waiter came by, Al asked him, “Are there any Chinese Jews?” “I don’t know sir, let me ask,” the waiter replied, and he went into the kitchen. He returned in a few minutes and said, “No, sir. No, Chinese Jews.” “Are you sure?” Al asked. “I will check again, sir,” the waiter replied and went back to the kitchen.

    While he was still gone, Sid said, “I cannot believe there are no Jews in China. Our people are scattered everywhere.” When the waiter returned he said, “Sir, no Chinese Jews.” “Are you really sure?” Al asked again. “I cannot believe there are no Chinese Jews.” “Sir, I ask everyone,” the waiter replied exasperated. “We have Orange Jews, Prune Jews, Tomato Jews and Grape Jews, but we have no Chinese Jews.”
  4. Rational discussion please, this is a trading forum not Stormfront international. Btw, there are Chinese jews in China. There is a thousand year old community in the old Chinese city of Kaifeng in central china. I have been there:)
  5. that's assuming that their economy will forever be based on manufacturing, but economies change just like England is no longer an industrial powerhouse but switched to other sectors, financial services, etc.

    They, out of their own initiative, are already moving away from low-tech industries

    In some technologies like nanotech they are already outpacing the USA.


    Nanotechnology - the manipulation of matter on an atomic scale to develop new materials - is an industry predicted to be worth nearly £1.5tn pounds by 2012, and China is determined to corner the biggest chunk of the market.

    Its investment has already surpassed that of any other country after the US.

    China now produces more papers on nanotech than any other nation. Nanotech plants have sprung up in cities from Beijing in the north to Shenzhen in the south, working on products including exhaust-absorbing tarmac and carbon nanotube-coated clothes that can monitor health.

    "The overall trends are irrefutable," says Dr James Wilsdon, director of the Science Policy Centre at the Royal Society, and author of the Demos report "China: The Next Science Superpower?". "China is snapping at the heels of the most developed nations, in terms of research and investment, in terms of active scientists in the field, in terms of publications and in terms of patents."

  6. heech


    Here's the real rhetorical question you should be asking yourself:

    - considering Chinese have intellectual capability, as evidenced by demographics at any top-tier university in the US,

    - considering other nations with similar cultures have done very well (Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore),

    - considering Chinese have proven they're willing and able to work hard under all conditions...

    Why should the average Chinese only be *half* as productive as the average American, in 30 years?

  7. Again, you say Korea/Japan/Hong Kong were very "productive".
    Yes, they are very hard workers but their model only benefitted until & as long as the idiots/lazy asses in US/Europe are willing to buy & increasingly buy/finance.

    When the dumb masses in the US realize they've been screwing themselves over buy sending all their money to Asia, who are the Asians going to sell to?

    The US/European consumer will have no choice but to cut back further. Asians will have slower growth, if any, unless they're willing to finance consumption in US/Europe.


    Asia has been "productive" at the cost of virtually enslaving their population (ala Foxconn) through currency manipulations, etc.

    That'll eventually come to an end.
  8. What about World War 3? Do you think there will be no big war before 2040? Economies will be destroyed.
  9. The only way for China is down. Using unfair trade practices and manipulation of exchange rates China managed to get as much as it could form the West and at the same time its greed contributed to the financial crisis by investing all the money back in the West for making a yield and pushing interest rates artificially low in countries with a 3% - 4% real inflation rate..

    China should be punished hard for not opening completely its markets to the West, for not investing in infrastructure projects to increase the standartd of living of its poor and illiterate citizens and for wanting to make returns on top of the money it got from unfair trade practices. This must stop, even with a war if needed, because things will get worse if continue this way.
  10. Good post. However, the politicians of the West are corrupted and possibly have conspired to screw their citizens in favor of Asians. They continue doing so. They only know the reasons.
    #10     Aug 7, 2010