Exclusive poll shows Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in three key swing states https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...-harris-in-three-key-swing-states/ar-AA1omP9Q Vice President Kamala Harris still has work to do if she is to catch Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, an exclusive poll reveals.
Here's how Nate Silver has it right now--- https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/369827/harris-trump-polls-models-2024-nate-silver But beginning last Thursday, Silver Bulletin showed Trump taking a slight edge. As of midday Tuesday, it gave Trump a 56.7 percent chance to win the election. That’s despite Silver Bulletin’s polling averages showing Harris with narrow edges in most swing states. Again, a forecasting model is not just a crude polling average, it’s also trying to anticipate how the race might change between now and the election. As Silver explained in a recent post, the model is dinging Harris in part because presidential nominees typically get a polling bounce after their convention and lose some of that advantage later on.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ex-maga-fans-reveal-finally-100020383.html Ex-MAGA Fans Reveal What Finally Made Them Dump 'Disgusting' Trump In Damning Ads Lee Moran Updated Tue, September 3 Former supporters of Donald Trump scathingly explain why they have now ditched the “disgusting” former president ― in favor of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris ― for good in a new ad campaign that’s worth a reported $11.5 million. The Republican Voters Against Trump group is using the campaign to target conservative-leaning independents and undecided Republicans in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nebraska throughout September, according to a press release sent to HuffPost. Videos featuring former Trump voters detailing their switch to Harris in the 2024 election will air on TV, streaming platforms, online and radio across the states, said the Republican, anti-Trump organization. The individuals cite Trump’s “treatment of women,” his role in inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol in a bid to overturn his 2020 election loss, his conviction in his hush money trial and warn of what will happen in a second term. Billboards featuring the Trump-turned-Harris backers will also be installed across the states. They bear the messages, “I’m a former Trump voter,” and “I’m voting for Harris.” The blitz began Tuesday, the day after Harris spent Labor Day campaigning alongside President Joe Biden ― and Trump was MIA. While the actual effect that viral attack videos can have on changing voters’ minds remains up for debate, the group’s executive director Sarah Longwell said its campaign aimed to “help elevate the voices of these disaffected Republicans and build a permission structure for many other traditional GOP voters to reject Donald Trump and his MAGA movement, even if it means voting for Democrats with whom they might have policy differences.” The group has long been a thorn in the Republican presidential nominee’s side and has frequently used statements from former Republicans to condemn the twice-impeached, one-term president.
Nate Silver's Election Model Shows Donald Trump Surging https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-election-model-shows-donald-trump-surging-1949000 Former President Donald Trump's chances of victory in November are the highest they've been in over a month, according to Nate Silver's latest election forecast. Despite Vice President Kamala Harris' consistent string of polling victories since entering the 2024 race, Silver's forecast shows Trump having a higher chance of securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win his reelection bid, putting Trump's chances of victory at 58.2 percent as of Wednesday. Harris, in comparison, has a 41.6 percent chance of winning in November, according to the latest Silver Bulletin.