One of the great things about Rasmussen and Trafalgar is that they use "Likely Voters" and not "Registered Voters".
Nah,Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Zogby are 3 of the worst.Credible pollsters and aggregate polling has Trump ahead though so he is indeed ahead.
If the "trial" results in conviction, then Trump's numbers will surge higher and bascially hand him The White House. The state that will be tough will be Pennsylvania with all the cheating there.
The "Big Short" guy today.... on CNBC, predicted a swing-state landslide for Trump. (Counterpoint) --->Now.... just because he got one right, in no way shape or form can we assume he has predictive powers. He is a WS goob after all. Not exactly the bastion of common sense. But who knows, maybe with all his newfound $'s and fame he's been out on the road getting in touch with real people and not polls. Beats me.
Again, I go back to the "Democrats aren't stupid" argument, as much as conservatives like to call them so. They see this polling data. They've got something planned here, I just don't know what it is.
I believe that the dems can both be stupid and have something planned too. Those are not mutually incompatible. The very notion of starting down the road with Joe as the candidate for round two is stupidity on steroids. But now that that dumb plan is not working out they are moving on to dumb plans B, C, D and E. I don't believe there are any masterminds making a grand scheme work though. There is a lot of running around putting duct tape and bondo on things right now. Some of it is pretty straightfoward, ie, Joe is gone in the head, and only listens to Jill who is hooked on living in the White House. I do believe though that the forces that be in dem backchannels forced Joe into this early debate scenario with the dual purpose of either helping himself out or- to the contrary- making it clear to others in the party that extraordinary remedies are going to be required. The early debate forces that reality to set in before the convention. Joe is deteriorating pretty fast these days too. Chances of him doing a full face plant somewhere are actually pretty good.
Ok, I can't find fault in any of this. So, if I understand you, a theory of yours is they move for a last minute replacement?