I don't pretend to know what will happen. I'm just - from time to time - posting some things which seem like they are outside the bounds of historically applicable ranges.
Question for Mark Kelley: Other than this how is your day going? 15% of vote just freed up. Unless you think they will go demtard. Arizona’s Libertarian Senate candidate dropping out of race, endorsing Masters https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...idate-dropping-out-of-race-endorsing-masters/
"Polls had shown Victor garnering support in the low single digits". "15% of vote just freed up" -- LOL
I just read 15% in another article. I don't know. How far apart are kelly and masters polling, then tell me if a few points matter. If you and Kelly are happy, fine. carry on. Just hope you are happy the end of next week.
No doubt. The few points do matter in this close race. However it has been very rare in history that any Libertarian polled at 15%. If this regularly happened then the party would automatically be on the ballot in many states without the need to collect signatures via petitions to land up on ballots each election cycle.
I am unable to calibrate some of these things due to the early voting that has already occurred in many states. Fetidman, for example, clearly shit the bed in the debate but people were also voting by mail before that. Ditto for Arizona and the libertarian dropping out.
It's a real scandal in Pennsylvania, where people have been allowed to vote before seeing Fetterman and Oz in a debate.