Even if there is a total 1% increase in interest rate, there is little impact on economy overall. In general, businesses are not borrowing since there is no hot expansion. Economy is not over-heating. Consumers are not heavily in debt, other than the hot housing market. As long as housing market does not crash like in 2008, consumer finance looks to be fine. Most of the impact is on the financial market. Re-pricing and re-positioning. Crypto will be hurt the most. Then some of those hot financial instruments. Large techs, Meme and SPACs. Some good stocks can be baby in bath water. But that should not last very long. If some companies like energy companies still make good cash flow, their stock prices should still be strong. I think this re-pricing will last for the entire 2022. Fed will make sure this does not cause recession.
Wrong. A 1% increase now won't change the real interest rate for the next 10 years or next 30 years. This is exactly what market gets it wrong. A 4x 0.25% Fed rate increase this year only change the short-term Fed rates. It is the market expectation what happens with the long term rate. The 10-year rate is still only at 1.8%. It is still low historically.
2008? There was fear at that point. Right now, zero panic. So we could have much lower to go. Markets tend to test the complacent. Cryptos have already dumped a ton. Now imagine if the stock markets has fear. BTC will go back to under $10k.