Arizonas going blue baby!!! Thanks Trump https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492830-kelly-expands-lead-over-mcsally-in-arizona Kelly expands lead over McSally in Arizona By Reid Wilson - 04/15/20 06:00 AM EDT Retired astronaut Mark Kelly leads Sen. Martha McSally (R) by 9 points in Arizona, one of the states at the heart of the battle for control of the Senate in 2020. A new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse survey conducted by the Phoenix-based nonpartisan polling firm OH Predictive Insights shows Kelly leading McSally by a 51 percent to 42 percent margin. The company's last survey found Kelly leading by a 7-point margin, 49 percent to 42 percent. Kelly, a first-time candidate and the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), leads McSally by 10 points in Maricopa County, which accounts for the vast majority of Arizona's vote. Only one candidate in recent history, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Diane Douglas (R) in 2015, has won statewide election in Arizona without carrying Maricopa County. Kelly also leads by a huge margin among independent voters, taking two-thirds among those who side with neither Democrats nor Republicans. McSally, who lost a close race for Arizona's other U.S. Senate seat in 2018 before being appointed to fill two years of the late Sen. John McCain's (R) seat, takes just under a quarter of independent voters. The same poll found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump among Arizona voters by a 52 percent to 43 percent margin. Biden is hoping to become the first Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton to win Arizona's electoral votes. "McSally's path to victory is difficult, but not impossible," said Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insight's chief of research. "She needs to expand her base outside of Trump's base of support by winning over women, independents, Latinos and suburban voters in Maricopa County." Arizona is a must-win state for Democrats seeking to reclaim control of the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats, along with states like Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. Kelly has been the party's all-star recruit. He pulled in $11 million in the first three months of the year, his campaign said Tuesday, and held $19.7 million in the bank. McSally is no fundraising slouch herself: Her campaign said she raised $6.3 million and had $10.2 million on hand, figures that put her among the GOP's best fundraisers.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...an-four-years-ago-reuters-ipsos-idUSKCN21X1AQ Exclusive: Democrats, furious with Trump, much more keen to vote now than four years ago - Reuters/Ipsos NEW YORK (Reuters) - When Republicans in Wisconsin pushed through state elections last week in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, Jessica Jaglowski donned a protective mask and headed for the ballot box, determining her best shot at self-preservation was not to stay home but to vote Republicans out of office. Come November, when Republican President Donald Trump is up for re-election, Jaglowski, a 47-year-old Democrat in Milwaukee, says she will be even more determined to vote, even if the deadly virus continues to ravage her community. “He’s half the reason we’re in this mess right now,” she said, criticizing Trump for downplaying the threat of COVID-19 before it hit the country hard. “If I have to wait in line for 12 hours, in a storm, I don’t care. I’m voting for whoever can get Trump out.” After three years in the White House, this much about Trump is clear: Those who want to deny him the presidency are much more determined to vote now than they were four years ago. Democrats’ intention to vote is also rising more than it is among Republicans, both nationally and in historically competitive battleground states like Wisconsin that Trump narrowly won in 2016, according to more than 66,000 U.S. adults who took the Reuters/Ipsos online poll in the first quarter of 2020 or 2016. The highly motivated opposition is another sign of trouble for Trump, who saw his chief argument for re-election - a soaring economy and record-low unemployment - evaporate amid a health crisis that has put millions of Americans out of work. Even before the pandemic, Trump struggled to woo independents and moderates he would need to win November’s election, and recent polls showed Trump trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden by several points nationwide, as well as in battleground states such as Arizona and Michigan. According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 70% of Democrats said they were “certain” to vote in the upcoming presidential election, 9 percentage points higher than in the first quarter of 2016. Among Republicans, the increase from 2016 was much smaller – 3 percentage points – with 71% saying they will vote in November. GRAPHIC: Fired up Democrats - here Democrats have for years outnumbered Republicans in the United States but they also tend to be less politically active. Yet for the first time since at least 2012, nearly the same percentage of Democrats and Republicans said they planned to vote in 2020. When the poll combined states that are expected to be especially competitive this year – Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Colorado – voting interest rose by 11 points among Democrats over the past four years, while it only rose by 3 points among Republicans. GRAPHIC: A head start for the Democrats - here To be sure, a lot can happen in the next seven months to change the public’s interest in voting. The coronavirus pandemic has disproportionately hit Democratic-leaning urban communities, and it is unclear how a continuing, or resurgent virus will affect turnout in November. So far, people who support Trump are just as likely to be discouraged from voting during the coronavirus outbreak as those who oppose him, with the percentage of likely voters dropping equally, 8 percentage points each, Reuters/Ipsos polling from March shows. “All the conventional wisdom and research suggests that (Trump) is in very big trouble,” said Maria Krupenkin, a political science professor at Boston College. “But that same research also said he was in a bad position before the 2016 election” and Trump still won, Krupenkin said, referring to opinion polls that showed Democrat Hillary Clinton with a lead in the final few weeks before the vote. ANGRY AND DISSATISFIED The rise in political enthusiasm was on display in the Democratic presidential nominating contests this year. Turnout in many states such as Michigan, Virginia and South Carolina surpassed previous highs set in 2008, when Barack Obama made his historic run for the presidency. In state after state, large majorities of Democratic primary voters - around 60% - said they were “angry” with the Trump administration, while 30% said they were “dissatisfied,” according to exit polls by Edison Research. Most of them said they voted for a candidate who they thought could beat Trump. The intensity of Democratic political engagement is part of a broader, tribal mentality of “negative partisanship” that has been increasingly motivating voters for a half century, said Steven Webster, a political scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. That anger runs both ways, Webster added, saying Trump was very capable of generating enough interest among Republicans over the next several months to nullify any Democratic advantage. Tim Murtaugh, a spokesman for Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign, noted strong turnout for the president at state Republican primaries this year even though he did not have competition. “President Trump’s supporters would run through a brick wall to vote for him,” Murtaugh said in an emailed statement to Reuters. Andrew Bates, a spokesman for Biden’s campaign, said he expected this week’s endorsements by Obama, under whom Biden served as vice president, and Senator Bernie Sanders, his former rival for the nomination, to further energize Democrats. Another sign of Democratic enthusiasm came from Wisconsin where liberal judge Jill Karofsky scored an upset victory over conservative, Trump-backed incumbent Daniel Kelly in a state Supreme Court election in which she won some counties that voted for Trump in 2016. Milwaukee’s Janine Hedges, 50, was among thousands who waited in line to vote last week in Wisconsin, which also held a Democratic presidential primary. She cast her ballot for Sanders, who has since suspended his campaign and endorsed Biden. In November, she is ready to wait in line again - for Biden - regardless of the coronavirus. “We just can’t do four more years of this,” she said. “Even though he is not my first choice, Biden is somebody who has a more benevolent side to him. We need that.”
President Trump and Republicans could face trouble this November President Trump has announced new federal guidelines for reopening the country that place responsibility on governors on how to restart business and end the stay-home-orders in their states. This comes as health experts and lawmakers across the nation continue to call on the administration to expand coronavirus testing, which is still critically lacking. The admission that governors will be in charge marked a reversal from earlier in the week when Trump claimed that he had “total authority” over such decisions. He then called for the “liberation” of three states, inciting his followers there to revolt against their governors and protest the stay-at-home orders. With more than 22 million Americans unemployed and an entire decade of job gains gone, the inability to stick to a cohesive message and choice to divide the country by playing to his base will cost Trump and Republicans in the election. The approval ratings and polling positions of the president have fallen across the nation and in crucial swing states, so his weakened position and erratic narrative will also likely hurt Republicans in key down-ballot races. Together with lagging Republican fundraising, this reveals a party that is potentially looking at a substantial defeat in November. Just this month, Trump's approval rating has fallen from 49 percent to 43 percent, according to a new Gallup poll. Further, almost 50 percent of Americans approved of how the president was handling the pandemic last month, while 46 percent disapproved. But now almost 50 percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Moreover, Trump is now performing poorly in swing states such as Arizona, Florida and Michigan, and Republican down-ballot candidates in these states are experiencing a ripple effect. In Arizona, once a reliable Republican stronghold, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump 52 percent to 43 percent, according to a Predictive Insights poll. Further, opposition to Trump is also trickling down the ballot in Arizona. The same poll finds Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leading Republican Sen. Martha McSally 51 percent to 42 percent in this key race to watch. In Florida, a state Trump won in 2016 that has trended red, current polling numbers should be concerning for the president and Republicans. Biden leads Trump 46 percent to 40 percent, according to a University of North Florida survey. Additionally, 53 percent of voters in Florida disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus, while only 46 percent approve. In Michigan, a state Trump won in 2016, Biden now leads 46 percent to 42 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Moreover, Biden leads Trump 48 percent to 45 percent, a Public Policy Polling survey finds. The president also faces a motivated Democratic base in Michigan, with a 32 percent increase in participation in the Democratic primary. However, the most substantive concern for Trump and Republicans will be Democratic fundraising lead in down-ballot races. In the 10 Senate races deemed either toss-ups or slightly leaning toward one party, Democratic candidates outraised Republican candidates $44 million to $36 million, The Cook Political Report and campaign data show. In Arizona, Kelly raised $11 million in the first quarter, while McSally raised $6 million. In Maine, Democratic challenger Sara Gideon raised $7 million, while Republican Sen. Susan Collins raised $2 million. Further, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham have been widely outraised by their Democratic challengers. In Kentucky, Amy McGrath raised $5 million more than McConnell. Moreover, in South Carolina, Jaime Harrison raised nearly $2 million more than Graham. The current polling and fundraising data could spell electoral trouble for Republicans, who are looking to reelect Trump and maintain their Senate majority. An incumbent president has not lost an election in 28 years, but these are unprecedented times. If Trump will continuously fail to deliver a bipartisan message and steady hand amid the pandemic, Republicans could be looking at a substantial defeat in the election in November.
Biden leads Trump in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to recent polls William Cummings USA TODAY Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were critical to President Donald Trump's 2016 win over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Ahead of this year's election, he is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, in all four of them, according to recent polling. If Trump were to lose those four states on Nov. 3 it would virtually assure a Biden victory. Florida A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found 46% of registered Florida voters said they would vote for Biden and 42% would vote for Trump. Voters in Florida disapproved of Trump's handling of the coronavirus outbreak, 51%-46%. But 89% of Republicans approved of the president's response, compared with 87% of Democrats who disapproved. Among independents, 57% disapproved of Trump's response to the pandemic and 41% approved. Gov. Ron DeSantis was one of the last governors to issue a stay-home-order in response to the outbreak before he did effective April 3. That order is set to expire at the end of the month, but 72% said the state should not loosen the restrictions at the end of the month and 76% said it should only reopen if public health officials deem it safe. When asked whom they relied on most for accurate information about the outbreak, 62% said health officials, 18% said Trump and 8% said DeSantis. The Quinnipiac poll was conducted from April 16-20 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Michigan A Fox News poll released Wednesday found Biden ahead of Trump among registered voters in Michigan, 49%-41%. That poll also found that Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, whom Biden is considering as a running mate, led Vice President Mike Pence 49%-43% in a hypothetical VP matchup. Whitmer's 58% favorability rating in the state was higher than Biden's (53%), as well as Trump's (44%). And at 37%, her unfavorability rating was also better than that for Biden (43%) and Trump (52%). Trump has publicly criticized Whitmer's stay-at-home order in response to the coronavirus outbreak as being too tough and in a tweet last week he declared, "LIBERATE MICHIGAN!" But 57% of voters there said the restrictions were "about right" and another 9% thought they weren't tough enough. A third agreed with the president that they were "too restrictive." And 64% said they approved of Whitmer's handling of the crisis, compared to 45% who said the same of Trump. An Ipsos Public Opinion poll conducted April 15-20 for Reuters also found Biden ahead of Trump in Michigan, 46%-38%. Pennsylvania Another Fox News poll found that 50% of registered voters in the Keystone State back Biden and 42% favor Trump. When asked their opinion of the candidates, Biden fared better than the president with 52% saying it was favorable and 43% unfavorable. For Trump, it was 44% favorable and 53% unfavorable. Fitty-one percent of the voters in the state disapproved of Trump's handling of the coronavirus response and 44% approved. And 58% thought the president was too slow to respond to the crisis, while 39% thought he acted with "appropriate speed." By comparison, 69% approved of Gov. Tom Wolf's response to the outbreak. Sixty-two percent agreed with Wolf's stay-at-home order, while 23% thought it went too far and 12% didn't think it went far enough. Both the Pennsylvania and Michigan Fox News polls were conducted April 18-21 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The Ipsos/Reuters poll found Biden ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, 46%-40%. Wisconsin Biden held a narrow 43%-40% lead over Trump in Wisconsin, according to the Ipsos/Reuters poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. That poll found Trump's job approval rating in the state at 47%, with 53% saying they disapproved of the president's job performance. A plan to help the nation recover from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic was rated as the most important factor in choosing the next president by 45% of Wisconsin voters. And 49% thought Trump would be the better man for that job compared with 45% who thought Biden would be better at handling it. Despite the pandemic, Wisconsin moved forward with its primary election earlier this month. Ten percent of registered voters said they had voted on April 7 and were concerned about being exposed to the virus while 59% who voted said they weren't worried. Another 17% said they didn't vote because of their concerns about infection and 12% said they never planned to vote anyway.
Biden fares almost as well with young voters as Sanders in matchup vs. Trump, poll finds Joey Garrison USA TODAY BOSTON — Most young voters prefer Bernie Sanders, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for former Vice President Joe Biden in a November election against President Donald Trump, according to a new poll released Thursday by the Harvard Institute of Politics. Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, holds a 60%-30% lead over Trump among likely voters ages 18 to 29 years old, the poll found, only one point below a 62%-31% lead Sanders, the Vermont senator, would have among young voters if he were the nominee. The leads are similar even though the same poll found 50% of likely young voters view Biden unfavorably. Sanders is viewed favorably by 58% of young voters, compared with 42% for Biden. "This is less about Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden and more about Donald Trump," said John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard's Institute of Politics. "And I think there is a sense that at this stage, young progressives and the center-left really have really seemed to unite on that front." Poll:Two-thirds of voters support mail-in ballots for November The poll, a sample of 2,546 people ages 18-29, was taken between March 11 and March 23 as Biden was widening his delegate lead and before Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Sanders. The poll, which was conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Biden's ability to turn out young progressive voters to the polls is widely seen as one of his campaign's biggest weaknesses. But Della Volpe warned the new poll results do not mean Biden can afford to stop working for their votes. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had an even larger lead among young voters against Trump at this point, 61%-25%, but she ended up with just a 55%-36% advantage among young people in the election over Trump, according to exit polls. It contributed to her defeat. "Currently, they are giving him the benefit of the doubt," Della Volpe said, referring to Biden. "There are a lot of young people who preferred Sanders, voted for Sanders, but are willing to say in a two-person match-up, they'd be with Biden right now. He cannot take that cohort for granted. And my read over his activities the last few weeks is that he's not taking them for granted." Biden has been courting progressive Democrats who backed Sanders in the primary, this month unveiling policy proposals to lower the eligibility age for Medicare to 60 years years old and forgive college debt for millions of Americans. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll of all voters released this week found Biden ahead of Trump among all likely voters, 49%-42%. Biden holds a 5.9 point lead in Real Clear Politics' average of polls. The Harvard poll also found the coronavirus outbreak now tops the concerns of young people, with 19% ranking it No.1, followed by health care, 17%, the economy, 14%, and the environment, 9%. Notably, the poll was taken before many states started imposing stay-at-home orders and the COVID-19 death count started to rapidly increase. "This is just another anxiety and stresser that young people are being forced to deal with," Della Volpe said, comparing it to issues like the Great Recession, school shootings and the increasing cost of living that have affected young people. "Now with this on top of it, this is a lens of which I think they're kind of engaging in politics in 2020."
EXCLUSIVE: Voters in swing states trust governors over Trump on reopening economy, poll finds By Alexander Bolton - 04/23/20 10:34 AM EDT Voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina — four states that could determine who wins the White House in November — say they trust their governors more than President Trump by a substantial margin on making the right decision to reopen the economy, according to a new poll from a Democratic pollster. The Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey found 61 percent of voters in Michigan who were surveyed trust Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) more than Trump to decide on when to reopen the state, while 34 percent said they trusted Trump more. In North Carolina, 62 percent said they more trusted Gov. Roy Cooper (D), while in Pennsylvania 62 percent said they more trusted Gov. Tom Wolf (D) and in Wisconsin 56 percent said they more trusted Gov. Tony Evers (D). On average, the Democratic governors of those four battleground states also have a net approval rating for their job on handling the coronavirus crisis that is 32 points higher than Trump’s. The four governors average a 58-percent approval rating versus a 31-percent disapproval rating for their handling of the virus for a net of plus 27, while Trump registers a 45-percent approval rating compared to 50 percent disapproval for a net of minus 5. One of the governors, Whitmer, is a candidate to serve as presumptive Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden’s running mate. She has a 57-percent approval rating compared to a 37-percent disapproval rating. By comparison, Trump’s approval rating in Michigan — a state he carried in 2016 — is 44 percent while his disapproval rating is 51 percent. The president’s approval ratings in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are 46 percent, 44 percent and 45 percent, respectively, in this poll, while his disapproval numbers stand at 49 percent, 52 percent and 48 percent. PPP surveyed more than 1,200 voters in each state on behalf of Protect Our Care, a group devoted to defending the 2010 Affordable Care Act, also known as ObamaCare. “What I think we’ve seen is that President Trump can’t bullshit his way through this pandemic. You have to show genuine competency, genuine leadership and genuine empathy,” said Brad Woodhouse, the executive director of Protect Our Care. “We’ve focused on the battleground presidential states to make both the policy point about the performance in these states but also the political point that the president might think he’s doing the right thing for his base by attacking these governors, by early on denying them supplies, but all he’s doing is complicating an already tough political situation for himself,” he added. Trump has clashed most sharply with Whitmer, who may wind up on the Democratic presidential ticket later this year. Trump said last month he had a “big problem” with the “young," "woman governor” in Michigan whom he said “all she does is sit there and blame the federal government.” He said he told Vice President Pence not to call her in his dealings as head of the White House coronavirus task force. Trump has also clashed with governors generally on who should have the ultimate authority during the crisis, proclaiming last week: “When somebody’s president of the United States, the authority is total.” Trump defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election by winning Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His victories in the Rust Belt states shocked Democrats and political handicappers alike. Pollsters also found the vast majority of voters in the four battleground states, including Trump supporters, said that they believe social distancing measures should remain in place. On average, only 19 percent of respondents in those states think social distancing measures should be relaxed. In Michigan, 18 percent expressed support for loosening restrictions while in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the percentage of respondents in favor of easing social distancing stood at 16 percent, 17 percent and 23 percent, respectively. More than 50 percent of respondents — ranging from 52 percent in North Carolina to 57 percent in Michigan — said social distancing guidelines now in place are “the right thing.” There’s little support for easing social distancing rules even among Trump supporters, according to the survey. In Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, only an average of 34 percent of Trump voters polled said distancing measures should be relaxed — with support for loosening requirements standing at 36 percent, 28 percent, 32 percent and 40 percent, respectively. PPP surveyed 1,277 Michigan voters, 1,275 North Carolina voters, and 1,251 Pennsylvania voters on April 20 and April 21. It surveyed 1,415 Wisconsin voters on April 20. The margins of error were 2.7 percentage points in Michigan, 2.7 points in North Carolina, 2.8 points in Pennsylvania and 2.6 points in Wisconsin. The survey pool included a mix of male and female voters who supported Trump, Clinton, a third-party candidate or did not vote in 2016. Gallup also released a survey on Thursday that shows more than two-thirds of Americans have confidence in their state's governor when it comes to economic decisions, higher than any other official in the U.S. --Updated at 12:29 p.m.