Devine: Candace Owens’ Blexit movement is Democrats’ worst nightmare https://nypost.com/2019/11/06/devine-candace-owens-blexit-movement-is-democrats-worst-nightmare/ --paraphrased-- You can see the seeds in rising poll numbers, with one Rasmussen poll last year placing the president’s approval rating among black Americans at 36 percent. It was quickly dismissed by PhonySnark as an outlier, but other polls since have confirmed a smaller upward trajectory. The NAACP’s own poll in August showed Trump’s approval rating at 21 percent.
March 2016 polls Hillary ahead in every poll. Hillary got millions more votes March 2012 polls.Obama ahead in 13 out of 16 polls.Obama got millions more votes March 2008 polls.Obama ahead in 10 out of 15 polls.Obama got millions more votes. March 2004 polls.Bush ahead in 14 out of 20 polls.Bush got millions more votes
Mid terms November 2019 How John Bel Edwards won the Louisiana Governor's race Author: Chris McCrory Published: 1:41 PM CST November 17, 2019 "John Bel Edwards won with African American votes and African American turnout," political analyst Ron Faucheux said. "The 51% that Republicans got combined in the primary fell to 49% in the runoff, and that was largely due to increased African American turnout." Edwards spent much of his time in the closing days of the race in predominantly-black areas, trying to bring more black voters to the polls. During the last week of the campaign, Mayor LaToya Cantrell stumped for the incumbent governor. "This race really proved to be rural vs. urban, and Governor Edwards really performed so well in all of the urban areas," said pollster and analyst Greg Rigamer. The strategy worked overwhelmingly. By the time final results came in Saturday night, Edwards had secured about 99% of the African American vote, according to WWL-TV's election analysis By 9:45 p.m., WWL-TV called the election for Edwards because 93% of returns had come in, and the majority outstanding were from predominantly black districts, which had broken universally for the Democrat."
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/4...ck-voters-choose-any-given-2020-democrat-over Poll: Overwhelming majority of black voters back any 2020 Democrat over Trump An overwhelming majority of black voters — 85 percent — said in a new Hill-HarrisX poll that they would choose any Democratic presidential candidate over President Trump. The survey, which was released on Monday, found this sentiment to be particularly true among black voters along partisan lines. Ninety-eight percent of black voters who identify as Democrat, and 72 percent of those who identify as independent said they would back whoever ultimately becomes the Democratic nominee over Trump. Just 12 percent of black voters who identify as Republican said the same. Black voters are considered a key voting bloc with the Democratic Party, particularly in states like South Carolina where they make up a significant proportion of the electorate. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the front-runner in most national polls, remains the top pick among Democratic primary voters in South Carolina. According to a Fox News poll that came out on Sunday, Biden leads the Democratic field by 29 percentage points in the Palmetto State with 41 percent support. This marks a 6-point increase from July. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) climbed 7 percentage points to 12 percent support, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) fell four percentage points to 10 percent. Biden’s sizable lead is largely attributed to his support among black voters in the state. But recent polling suggests Warren’s overall support is on the rise among this key demographic. A Quinnipiac poll released earlier this month found that Warren's support among black voters ticked up to 19 percent, a 9-point increase since August.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/politics/trump-approval-black-voters-2020/index.html Black Americans really, really don't like Donald Trump Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large Updated 9:51 PM ET, Wed February 26, 2020 (CNN)On Wednesday, President Donald Trump's reelection campaign announced that it was opening 15 field offices in cities with large African-American populations, part of the incumbent's broader attempt to court black voters this November. Also on Wednesday, the Public Religion Research Institute released a massive summary of its 2019 polling data that contained a clear message for Trump's courtship of black voters: Good luck with that! "Black Americans are remarkably unified in their opposition to Trump," reads a memo breaking down the PRRI data. More than 3 in 4 African Americans held a "mostly" or "very" unfavorable view of Trump in 2019, with a whopping 56% of those saying they view the President "very" unfavorably. The lowest -- lowest! -- the President's unfavorable rating got in the PRRI polling was 72% in August. The highest unfavorable score? How about 83% in December. Interestingly, the PRRI poll showed that while a majority (55%) of African-Americans identified as Democrats, another 31% said they were independents and 10% as Republicans. Almost 9 in 10 black Democrats view Trump unfavorably while 3 in 4 black independents say the same. Trump's unfavorable rating among black Republicans is, perhaps not surprisingly, low -- at 36%. Now, it's possible that even with those dismal numbers, Trump might improve on his showing among black voters from 2016 in 2020. That's because Trump did so incredibly poorly among black voters, winning just 8% of their votes in 2016. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, the lone black Republican in the Senate, predicted last week that Trump would get 12% of the black vote in 2020, adding: "And that is game over." If Trump could get to 12% support in the black community, it would match the best showing for a Republican presidential candidate among that group in the last four decades. (George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Bob Dole in 1996 each got 12% of the African-American vote). The Point: Small gains could be a big deal for Trump in the black community. But these PRRI numbers make clear how hard those gains will be for him this November.
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/268517/analyzing-black-support-president-trump.aspx Gallup Nov 2019 Based on what we see so far in terms of black ratings of the job Trump is doing as president, currently at 10%, I don't see a high probability of that happening. The same stability holds true for Trump's approval rating among black Americans. Gallup averages show Trump with a 10% approval rating among blacks in 2017, 11% in 2018 and 10% so far in 2019. In short, Trump's approval rating among blacks has essentially not changed over time, despite blacks presumably having had plenty of time to observe the economic gains that Trump touts as the reason why they should be moving into his camp.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...4b705c-37de-11ea-bb7b-265f4554af6d_story.html Black Americans are deeply pessimistic about the country under Trump, whom more than 8 in 10 describe as ‘a racist,’ Post-Ipsos poll finds Jan. 17, 2020 at 5:30 a.m. CST The findings come from a Washington Post-Ipsos poll of African Americans nationwide, which reveals fears about whether their children will have a fair shot to succeed and a belief that white Americans don’t fully appreciate the discrimination that black people experience. While personally optimistic about their own lives, black Americans today offer a bleaker view about their community as a whole. They also express determination to try to limit Trump to a single term in office. More than 8 in 10 black Americans say they believe Trump is a racist and that he has made racism a bigger problem in the country. Nine in 10 disapprove of his job performance overall. The pessimism goes well beyond assessments of the president. A 65 percent majority of African Americans say it is a “bad time” to be a black person in America. That view is widely shared by clear majorities of black adults across income, generational and political lines. By contrast, 77 percent of black Americans say it is a “good time” to be a white person, with a wide majority saying white people don’t understand the discrimination faced by black Americans. Courtney Tate, a 40-year-old elementary school teacher in Irving, Tex., outside Dallas, said that since Trump was elected, he’s been having more conversations with his co-workers — discussions that are simultaneously enlightening and exhausting — about racial issues he and his students face every day. “As a black person, you’ve always seen all the racism, the microaggressions. But as white people, they don’t understand this is how things are going for me,” said Tate, who said he is the only black male teacher in his school. “They don’t live those experiences. They don’t live in those neighborhoods. They moved out. It’s so easy to be white and oblivious in this country.” Francine Cartwright, a 44-year-old mother of three from Moorestown, N.J., said the ascent of Trump has altered the way she thinks about the white people in her life. “If I’m in a room with white women, I know that 50 percent of them voted for Trump and they believe in his ideas,” said Cartwright, a university researcher. “I look at them and think, ‘How do you see me? What is my humanity to you?’ ” The president routinely talks about how a steadily growing economy and historically low unemployment have resulted in more African Americans with jobs and the lowest jobless rate for black Americans recorded. Months ago, he said, “What I’ve done for African Americans in two and a half years, no president has been able to do anything like it.” Those factors have not translated positively for the president. A 77 percent majority of black Americans say Trump deserves “only some” or “hardly any” credit for the 5.5 percent unemployment rate among black adults, compared with 20 percent who say Trump deserves significant credit. In follow-up interviews, many said former president Barack Obama deserves more credit for the improvement in the unemployment rate, which declined from a high of 16.8 percent in 2010 to 7.5 percent when he left office. Others said their personal financial situation is more a product of their own efforts than anything the president has done. “I don’t think [Trump] has anything to do with unemployment among African Americans,” said Ethel Smith, a 72-year-old nanny who lives in Lithonia, Ga., a suburb of Atlanta. “I’ve always been a working poor person. That’s just who I am.” Black Americans report little change in their personal financial situations in the past few years, with 19 percent saying it has been getting better and 26 percent saying it has been getting worse. Most, 54 percent, say their financial situation has stayed the same. A similar 56 percent majority of African Americans rate the national economy as “not so good” or “poor,” contrasting with other surveys that find most Americans overall rate the economy positively, although there are sharp political divides on this question. Beyond questions about the economy, African Americans see a range of concerns impacting the country overall as well as their own communities. Just 16 percent of black Americans believe that most black children born in the United States today have “a good opportunity to achieve a comfortable standard of living.” A 75 percent majority think most white children have such an opportunity. More than 8 in 10 say they do not trust police in the United States to treat people of all races equally, and 7 in 10 distrust police in their own communities. Black Americans also widely sense that their experiences with discrimination are underappreciated by white Americans.Justabout 2 in 10 say that most white Americans understand the level of discrimination black Americans face in their lives. The starkly negative outlook appears to be a turnabout from previous points during both the Obama and George W. Bush presidencies, according to surveys that asked related questions. A 2011 Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation survey found 73 percent of black women said it was a “good time” to be a black woman in America, while a similar survey in 2006 found 60 percent of black men saying it was a good time to be a black man. Yet the Post-Ipsos poll also finds that 65 percent of black Americans say they feel optimistic about their own lives most or all of the time. This positive personal outlook crosses age and political groups. While it peaks among those who are older and with higher incomes, roughly half of black Americanswith incomes under $35,000 annually say they feel optimistic about their lives. Dana Clark, a father of 11 in Ontario, Calif., said he tells all of his children that it’s possible to succeed in America, but that they’ll have to work harder than the white children they encounter. “I tell them we’re going to set this plan up. Whatever you want to do, you’re going to be able to do it,” he said. “But it ain’t going to be easy, especially if [you] want to make some money because you’re going to be in a world where they’re not going to expect you to be there. You can get what you want, but you’ve got to work harder, faster and stronger.” The survey, by The Post and Ipsos, a nonpartisan research firm, is one of the most extensive recent surveys focused on views of the country and Trump among black Americans, who are often represented by only small samples in customary national polls. It was conducted among 1,088 non-Hispanic black adults, including 900 registered voters, drawn from a large online survey panel recruited through random sampling of U.S. households. Few black voters responded positively to Trump’s campaign appeal for their votes. Exit polls taken during the 2016 election showed just 8 percent of African Americans supported Trump and 89 percent backed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, although black turnout was significantly lower than in 2008 and 2012 for the election and reelection of Obama, the country’s first black president. In the Post-Ipsos poll, roughly three-quarters of black adults say the things that Trump is doing as president are “bad for African Americans,” while a similar majority saysObama’s actions as president were good. Kenneth Davis, a truck driver who lives outside Detroit, said that when Trump was elected, co-workers who secretly harbored racist thoughts felt emboldened to publicly express them. “One gentleman is waving the Confederate flag on the back of his pickup truck,” said Davis, 48, who is a Marine Corps veteran. “He was very brave to say, ‘Trump’s president, I’m going to get my window [painted].’ ” Retired federal prison Warden Keith Battle said the political climate has exposed “unresolved racial issues” and that Trump has emboldened white supremacists. Battle, who lives in Wake Forest, N.C., said white supremacists “are not the majority of whites in America, but there is a significant amount still, I’d say 30 percent, and I think they’re just leading the country down a path of, eventually, chaos. They’re feeling jeopardized of losing their white privilege.” Survey respondents were asked to say how Trump’s presidency has affected them personally or African Americans in general. The responses illuminated the data in the poll. “Donald Trump has not done anything for the African American people,” said one person. “He has created an atmosphere of division and overt racism and fear of immigrants unseen in many years,” said another. A third said, “He has taken hatred against people of color, in general, from the closet to the front porch.” Others echoed that sentiment, saying that the president has emboldened those with racially prejudiced views and therefore set back race relations for years. “I sense a separation between myself and some of my white associates,” one person wrote. Trump’s overall approval rating among black Americans stands at 7 percent, with 90 percent disapproving, including 75 percent who disapprove “strongly.” Similarly large majorities of black men and women disapprove of Trump, as do black Americansacross different age, education and income levels. Trump receives somewhat higher marks among self-identifiedblack conservatives, with 25 percent approving of his performance, compared with 5 percent of moderates and 3 percent among liberals. Few black Americans appear open to supporting Trump’s bid for reelection at this point. He receives between 4 and 5 percent support among black registered voters in head-to-head matchups against eight potential Democratic nominees. But the level of Democratic support depends on who is the party’s nominee, peaking at 82 percent for former vice presidentJoe Biden and falling to 57 percent for former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg. The Post-Ipsos survey was conducted Jan. 2-8 through Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, a large online survey panel recruited through random sampling of U.S. households. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points among the sample of 1,088 black adults overall and four points among the sample of 900 registered voters.
LOL the NAACP polling took place in August of 2018. Approval ratings are not = votes. 13% identified as GOP during the mid-terms.
An overwhelming majority of black voters — 85 percent — said in a new Hill-HarrisX poll that they would choose ANY Democratic presidential candidate over President Trump.