From 538: Congress Generic Ballot Polls The Dem is up a point or 2 in Gingrich's old district. That shouldn't be happening.
oh know slanted polls this early? 538's founder explains that polls don't really county until they herd in front of the election. we called it unskewing.
David Wasserman: “This is a tricky point in the election cycle to begin making predictions. On one hand, the danger signs are everywhere for the GOP: President Trump’s approval is mired in the high 30s, and support for the AHCA’s legislation is stuck in the high teens, and Democrats have been significantly over-performing—despite falling short—in a broad array of special elections. They also lead most national generic ballot tests by high single digits.” “Race by race, the data isn’t much better for Republicans. Multiple public and private polls now show House Republican incumbents who won by wide margins last fall tied with or trailing real and hypothetical opponents… Taken as a whole, the evidence would seem to point to a wave election that would justify moving a slew of races into the Toss Up column and threaten GOP control of the House.” “Except, the election isn’t this November; it’s still 16 months away. The fact these warning lights are flashing now means Republicans won’t be caught off guard like many incumbents were in 2006 and 2010—they will have time to raise millions, conduct opposition research and define their opponents early.”
oh know the crooked polls are showing that the democrats are gaining in California and New York and in other selected races the solid Rs became leans R can you believe the polls are looking good for democrats 16 months out. from you link... CA-24 Carbajal Lean D to Likely D FL-18 Mast Solid R to Likely R IL-10 Schneider Likely D to Solid D IL-12 Bost Likely R to Lean R IL-17 Bustos Likely D to Solid D NY-19 Faso Lean R to Toss Up NC-09 Pittenger Solid R to Likely R NC-13 Budd Solid R to Likely R PA-06 Costello Likely R to Lean R VA-02 Taylor Solid R to Likely R
Well Dems just pulled within 4-7 points in safe gerrymandered red districts they usually lose by 20-30 points.I don't think dems are going to win races they usually lose by 20-30 points but I think they can take some red districts that they usually lose by 5-10 points.
However the Dems need to come up with a new strategy with focused messaging on the issues to take these districts. The "hate Trump" message coupled with pouring money into the district strategy is not going to work. They just confirmed this in the special elections. The Democrats need a core message focused on jobs, immigration, world involvement, taxes, medical care, trade, and other important issues to voters -- not just the same old identify politics and divisiveness that they have been pushing.
It didn't work in gerrymandered red districts they normally lose by 20-30 points but that doesn't mean it wont work in red districts they normally lose by 5-10 points.No message is likely to win districts that dems normally lose by 20-30 points.The special elections confirmed dems can make 15 to 20 point gains with the current message and that can be enough to win closer races.
I strongly disagree. The only hope for Democrats to take back the Senate and the House in the 2018 elections is to arrive at messaging which addresses the concerns of Americans across the country. The current "hate Trump" and identity politics will not be successful to propel Democratic fortunes in 2018 -- in fact sticking with this as their message will only cost the Democrats more seats. The Democrats need to properly focus their money and couple it with a consistent. crisp message which addresses the concerns of Americans. In fact they should ignore Trump on the campaign trail and hit on their core message over & over again.