2018 MidTerm Trends

Discussion in 'Politics' started by exGOPer, May 26, 2017.

  1. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    Again, who said a SINGLE data point is a trend? Also, you again IGNORED the MARGIN of victory which I tried carefully to explain.


    Ugh, the Kentucky seat went to the Democrat by 37+ points, you are conveniently ignoring that fact. Margins matter.

    Plus you are ignoring ALL the other previous results posted in this thread, 37+ seats have been flipped and is a sign of things to come.
     
    #171     Feb 21, 2018
  2. exGOPer

    exGOPer

     
    #172     Feb 21, 2018
  3. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    So lets take a look at the Kentucky race... for many years now the state seat in the district was won by a margin of +30 points Democratic or greater. In 2016 the state seat was won by 150 votes in a close race which was +1 Republican (50.4-49.6). Belcher won this special election race by (68-32).

    Yet the media is focused that Trump won the district by 49 points in 2016 (ignoring the state seat race was merely +1 Republican) The Democratic press focuses on a +45 point improvement compared to Trump /Hillary. Yet they ignore that the Belcher race results actually trail her previous results in the district and the results of the previous state seat results in the district won by Democrats.

    Yes -- Margins Matter -- you have to compare similar margins in races for the same government position. For example, Obama won many counties in North Carolina in 2008 which also elected Republican state legislators by significant margins.


    Last night, Democrats flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points
    Democrat Linda Belcher regains her old seat.
    https://www.vox.com/2018/2/20/17034262/kentucky-special-election-linda-belcher
     
    #173     Feb 21, 2018
  4. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    So the fact that Trump won the district should be ignored for your victimhood to be abated?
     
    #174     Feb 21, 2018
  5. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    In terms of predicting election trends -- the results of an election seat should be compared to the previous elections for the same seat. Comparing the margins in the state seat race to the results for the Presidential contest have very little meaning. In fact doing so is simply creating an illusive fantasy which is not real.

    State seat races should be compared to previous races for the same seat to establish a trend. Same with Congressional races.
     
    #175     Feb 21, 2018
  6. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    But they are being compared, a seat that Democrats won by 20 points is now being won back by 37+ points, is that not worth reporting on especially considering there were so many Trump supporters in the very same place.
     
    #176     Feb 21, 2018
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Actually all the Democratic margins on this seat in previous elections were larger than the current election -- including ones with the same candidate.
     
    #177     Feb 21, 2018
  8. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    Source?
     
    #178     Feb 21, 2018
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Go read all the articles.
     
    #179     Feb 21, 2018
  10. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    I did, previous trends weren't mentioned anywhere, you made up your own facts as usual.
     
    #180     Feb 21, 2018