4,725,000 SEK Looks like the deposit withdrawals forced the Greeks into a deal. Still lots of potential for trouble as it goes through various parliaments and perhaps a replay in 4 months time, but anyway today its sunny and markets shoot upwards.
Greeks have defaulted 6 times in the last 100 years this time will be no different. New Greek government bought time to get its house in order, Greeks bringing back drachma and Germans refusing to fund the Greek banks in the end saves face for both sides.
4,790,000 SEK Dealmaker - Maybe Greece will leave the Euro but I think it has to be their choice and at the moment they want to stay. Just didnt think they would leave now or that the EU would push them out. As long as they stay within the Euro a way will be made to convince EU voters that they have not defaulted even if it means turning the debt into an interest free perpetuity so it can stay on the books ) Anyway the can seems to be kicked another 4 months and the Greek stockmarket is up.
4,850,000 SEK Not posted for a while because, well not done much or have much to say. Today there was another rate cut in Sweden. Repo rate now -0.25 (yes minus). Currency down and stock market up. Swedish kroner has weakened a lot in last 6 months and stock market has soared just like the DAX and I think for the same reason, partly because directly the currency effect but also partly because Sweden has a lot of large exporting companies which should really benefit and increase global sales: Volvo, Electrolux, Sandvik, Atlas Copco, ABB etc. Still just doing the same thing, trying to spot short term bottoms in a bull market and buying on the rebound. Then unleverage at the top or momentum fades and sometimes take a few minor short positions if I guess its overbought. Rinse and repeat... getting automatic and a bit boring to be honest.
4,925,000 SEK Most Swedish stocks only pay one dividend per year and its normally around this time. Proposed changes to the tax rules on ISK trading accounts mean that from Jan 2016 the minimum tax rate would be 0.375% of the total balance. Will mean an increase from this year but still not bad if you can generate a return in double figures. Not many trades, Will buy the OMX below 1640 and sell it at 1700.
5,065,000 SEK Well didnt think I would reach the annual target of 1 M SEK (25%) so soon into the year and about the same time as the last snow melted. A big chunk of the gains obviously coming from devaluation of the euro (read SEK) against the dollar but still my salary and expenses are in SEK so welcome nevertheless. Holding perhaps 4 M SEK in OMX30 ETFs and another 1 M SEK in southern europe indexes (Italy and Spain). Almost zero leverage.
5,100,000 SEK Start of earnings season in Sweden. First big bank SEB reported great earnings. Using last quarter PE is <12 and dividend 4.5%. Just been buying and selling the small market moves up and down.
5,180,000 SEK Another big week for reporting of Swedish companies. Banks doing well so far easily beating estimates. Hope the Greeks or Fed raising rates causes a mini panic and buying opportunity. Otherwise not much to do apart from enjoying the spring weather. Account is very simple right now. Swedish bank stock (dividend yield ca 5%) 830000 OMX ETF 3400000 Emerging market ETF 370000 Italy ETF 390000 Spain ETF 460000 Total from above 5450000 Broker loan at 1.25% 270000 Will sell some bank stock to erase this soon. Net Total 5180000 Updated equity curve below.
4,850,000 SEK Well almost immediately after the above post Swedbank started dropping. Press reported it due to being close to regulatory capital ratio limit which will hinder future growth. Bought ca 1 M SEK of unleveraged stock. Started buying long options this morning after market behaviour previous day. Maybe short term bottom in OMXS30 here. Will add to position if moves my way. Otherwise only small loss and try again at lower levels.
4,950,000 SEK Options expired today so started new positions for expiry next month. Sold OMXS30 at 1675 and bought at 1600. Otherwise quiet week.