2014: The Battle for Survival

Discussion in 'Journals' started by neke, Jan 5, 2014.

  1. Cray still exists? Look at the big increase in services revenue. This is just the kind of company that IBM would buy for a big premium and then start making a ton off services revenue. Just a guess.
     
    #41     Feb 17, 2014
  2. My guess is you have done this before and gotten away with it (as in shutting down your system and down averaging into a bad trade), this is why you keep doing it.
     
    #42     Feb 17, 2014
  3. There is NO reason (unless your an insider) to know or understand the WHY's of an individual company's move. I learned a long time ago that fundamentals sometimes just don't cut it for a variety of reasons. One of the reasons I don't trade the individual stocks. Some stocks you follow for years you can get a feel for and perhaps you felt that way about CRAY. However these smaller stocks are so ripe for manipulation that your discipline to quickly cut the loss is so important. You are NOT unlucky...these things DO happen, perhaps not all the time, but when it happens to YOU it just feels that way. CRAY just may give back all the gains next week and you will feel even sicker....

    The ability to shut down your system is literally ALL IN YOUR HEAD. When you come home...limit your time to research. Enjoy the family and other activities. If you trust your system you need to LEAVE it alone and that is where discipline kicks in. When you truly have had enough you will get it!
     
    #43     Feb 17, 2014
  4. lescor

    lescor

    "Everyone gets what they want from the market"

    You need to contemplate that famous quote and think about what it really means because you are a textbook example. When you know what to do, but still do the opposite, you are satisfying some kind of need. You are DOOMED if you don't figure it out.
     
    #44     Feb 17, 2014
  5. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    You're trading what you think, not what you see. All your large losses have been the result of this common trading mindset error. You believe that you, Neke, know better than the vast majority of market participants who are scrambling to buy shares.

    You, a lone retail day trader, believe that you know when price is too high and is due to reverse. This is the Lone Hero ego-fulfilling dream. David conquering the Goliath. The Bruce Willis "Die Hard" fantasy.

    If you had statistical evidence that the price action scenario presented by CRAY offers a higher probability of profiting by shorting rather than buying, then it would make sense to have shorted. But you don't have that evidence because it doesn't exist. The price action scenario presented by CRAY is a high conviction long trade.

    Stocks that gap open at new highs or multi-year highs (CRAY opened at a new 10-year high) and do not immediately fall or do not break the opening 5-min low with conviction, tend to make new highs all day way more often than not. They tend to have a very shallow pullback period during the east coast "lunch period" and they tend to resume the move up during the hour or so leading into the close.

    This is a gap and go scenario I've posted to your journal when you've tried to counter the the same price action environments in the past.

    April 9, 2011:

    I have to agree with VRUS being a shorting disaster...the technical price action was pure long signal. Priced gapped up in pre-market from the previous day which closed near all-time highs, then price ran from the open without a single tick of hesitation and consolidated in a narrow range at the opening range high. Buying anywhere in that narrow range, or buying the break out of the range with a buy stop was a very high probability trade based on that opening action. Everybody long VRUS was profitable and the price target is now $104. There is no fundamental reason whatsoever for price to drop, and technically there was no short signal the entire day.

    When I see stocks hitting the hi ticker over and over again in the opening half hour, I take that as a long signal and I'd be looking to buy any pullback pivot or a break through a previous high.


    February 26, 2012:

    FIRE opened with a huge gap into all-new-high territory. That means no one's in pain except shorts (and there were a helluva lot of them because the short interest going into earnings was 20%).

    That alone doesn't mean the price will continue to rise. As a gap trader, the standard rule of thumb is to watch the reaction to the gap at the market open. As I recall when I looked at the chart for that day, the opening bar was pure green. That's known as a gap-and-go (as opposed to a gap-and-crap) and it's a signal to trade in the direction of the gap.

    If FIRE had spiked a bit and retraced the entire opening bar, that could indeed be a fader's short signal, always with an advance risk management plan, though.

    Study how to play those gaps, Neke, they can be really profitable, but you need to wait a bit for the opening emotions to give you a clue to what the majority of market participants are thinking.


    Gaps are a specialty among professional retail traders (those who trade for a living). There are precise rules for trading gaps technically and if you learn to trade them technically instead of based on what you believe should happen, you'll have 5-figure intraday gains more often than losses.
     
    #45     Feb 17, 2014
  6. Oh no, here come the Monday Morning Quarterbacks who have never even sniffed anything close to what neke has made in his trading career and telling him what to do.

    This guy made over 50 percent last year, and has made over $700k net since reporting his trading here. How many posting here can say the same? Maybe two, or three posters?

    Yet we have the keyboard warriors acting as trading expert/ psychoanalyst who say neke is a lost cause.

    Trading is not called winning, just as neke won money in January, he gave it back on a bad trade. It happens. There are ups and downs. He's aggressive, and goes for the kill, which I admire, more than those spouting off trading cliches about risking just 2% on a trade as if its set in the Holy Grail. Or saying no discretionary trading. Well he made a ton discretionary trading in the past, why would he stop now after past success? Just because a bunch of keyboard warriors said to do so?

    I am willing to bet that neke will make more money trading this year than 90 percent of those posting on this thread.
     
    #46     Feb 17, 2014
  7. Well he doomed himself to a 50 percent return last year while working a full time job. Thats pretty good in my book.
     
    #47     Feb 17, 2014
  8. lescor

    lescor

    Read the history of his posts. He has a profitable strategy yet manages to lose money consistently by doing the same thing over and over. And every blow up post-trade analysis is the same. "Why do I keep doing this?" "I realize I have no discipline". "I recognize that this behavior will eventually kill me". But his answer is to just "turn off the screen". The REAL answer is to find out what deep seated or unadressed need he is satisfying by self-sabotaging himself regularly.

    But he also has a history of ignoring a lot of good advice.

     
    #48     Feb 17, 2014
  9. Heck of an up trend. Just think, OP would have been up 30% in a week if he had been long :eek:

    Might be the only adjustment necessary here, though I'm no trading millionaire, or Guru.
     
    • cray.JPG
      cray.JPG
      File size:
      40.2 KB
      Views:
      204
    #49     Feb 17, 2014
  10. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    +1
    IBM wasn't built in a day.
     
    #50     Feb 17, 2014