I don't think this kind of volatility is sustainable. 30% draw-down ("Lost a total of 125K in three attempts to fade that stock") intra-month (intraday ?) is madness. I don't mean to be disrespectful but i think neke is a greed-junkie... totally hooked the high generated by tremendous returns... It can only end badly... but, by all means neke, prove me wrong..
Shakespeare said “A coward dies a thousand times before his death, but the valiant taste of death but once". The fear of a black swan is overblown. I do not stake 100% of my account in an OTM weekly option (something that can lose 99% in a flash). Even with stocks, when I take a position with 100% or more intraday - it is probably not going to be a stock with question marks, something that can go 50% or more intraday. So its hard for me to see a scenario where I would lose 100% of account if played according to rules. People making investment decisions on their own are known to underperform the market over long periods of time because of emotional decision making - fear of total loss when they are down 5%, and complacency when they are up 20%. You could say fear of black swan has killed more traders than actual black swans. I sure would like to prove you wrong. My average option position is still only 7%. There is still room for more risk-taking if the odds are high - I am still working at defining the criteria for such high conviction trades.
It's not the black swan Neke needs to be worried about. Rather, it's the possibility for a prolonged losing streak in his discretionary trading system as had happened in the past.
Teddy said, "It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." I'm rootin' for ya Neke
Period Update for March (2/28/2015 - 4/3/2015) (5 weeks) Terrible month, down 70K (17.6%). Another terrible show for OPN-FCR (down 88K for the month), one of the two best-performing of last year. Not sure whether part of it had to do with trying to recoup the losses on that strategy last month. Backfired in a bad way. I opened up the flood gates to take more trades this year, but the performance tells me the strength of the strategy is in selectivity. Initial target was for 40 trades this year on the strategy. I have already done 80. I'm taking extra steps to enforce the selectivity and reduce trading there. Hoping for a better April. Code: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Opening Balance: 398,433 Net loss for period (70,326) Cash Withdrawal (4,500) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 323,607 For the Thread YTD 2015 (1/3/2015 - 4/3/2015) Opening Balance: 256,099 Net gain 79,008 (Up 31%) Cash Withdrawal (11,500) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 323,607 ---------------------- TRADES TYPE Exit Date/Time P/L STOCK 2015-03-02-15-51-29 -8000.2 OPTION 2015-03-02-15-23-24 -2081.8 STOCK 2015-03-02-15-05-02 492.4 STOCK 2015-03-03-15-41-28 1407 OPTION 2015-03-03-15-59-19 903.9 OPTION 2015-03-03-15-42-01 3908.3 OPTION 2015-03-04-10-15-29 -4674.6 OPTION 2015-03-04-14-59-16 16236.2 OPTION 2015-03-04-10-36-47 -10318.9 OPTION 2015-03-04-15-57-18 6368.4 OPTION 2015-03-06-09-59-17 7994 STOCK 2015-03-06-10-26-28 3142.6 OPTION 2015-03-06-15-41-49 -45664.1 STOCK 2015-03-06-15-42-14 -3259.6 STOCK 2015-03-06-15-28-48 2742.7 OPTION 2015-03-06-15-41-12 -26633.1 STOCK 2015-03-09-09-42-37 -389.7 OPTION 2015-03-09-09-44-06 -1961.2 OPTION 2015-03-09-10-11-22 17392.6 OPTION 2015-03-09-13-08-51 2216.9 OPTION 2015-03-09-14-30-40 3171 OPTION 2015-03-09-15-12-10 -4649.1 STOCK 2015-03-09-15-23-55 -3081.6 OPTION 2015-03-10-15-45-47 -11747.6 OPTION 2015-03-10-15-44-04 -5173.1 OPTION 2015-03-10-09-45-16 -480.7 OPTION 2015-03-10-12-21-26 33766.8 STOCK 2015-03-10-15-41-51 -764.9 STOCK 2015-03-11-15-44-58 -6359.8 STOCK 2015-03-11-15-41-22 1360.6 STOCK 2015-03-12-09-38-14 -2326 OPTION 2015-03-12-09-30-57 -7688.1 OPTION 2015-03-12-10-31-21 -12230.3 OPTION 2015-03-12-09-51-06 2395 STOCK 2015-03-12-11-26-40 6919.9 STOCK 2015-03-12-12-34-14 -1415.4 OPTION 2015-03-13-10-04-32 -924.7 OPTION 2015-03-13-09-56-14 -5558.4 OPTION 2015-03-13-09-54-16 16541 OPTION 2015-03-16-15-52-30 -12185.7 OPTION 2015-03-16-15-52-10 9844.4 OPTION 2015-03-16-10-19-26 -446.8 OPTION 2015-03-17-15-51-09 -8469.3 STOCK 2015-03-17-15-55-17 1396.6 STOCK 2015-03-18-15-05-26 5767.7 OPTION 2015-03-18-11-10-37 -15655.9 OPTION 2015-03-18-09-55-17 -2083.9 STOCK 2015-03-18-15-52-16 2209.9 OPTION 2015-03-19-12-16-57 49.9 OPTION 2015-03-20-15-26-12 -9975.1 STOCK 2015-03-20-10-05-06 2766.3 OPTION 2015-03-20-10-59-19 -8921.1 OPTION 2015-03-20-15-41-53 15200.4 OPTION 2015-03-23-11-38-44 4595.9 OPTION 2015-03-23-15-58-56 -5436.8 OPTION 2015-03-24-09-44-11 -841.2 OPTION 2015-03-24-15-52-49 -970.6 STOCK 2015-03-24-13-09-16 6379.7 OPTION 2015-03-24-11-54-21 -881.9 STOCK 2015-03-25-09-40-57 3485 OPTION 2015-03-25-12-36-43 17176.8 STOCK 2015-03-25-15-12-02 -13720.9 STOCK 2015-03-26-14-56-02 2353.3 OPTION 2015-03-26-14-51-38 1145 STOCK 2015-03-26-10-46-08 1721.2 OPTION 2015-03-26-10-06-57 -3030.2 OPTION 2015-03-26-10-02-09 -494.1 OPTION 2015-03-26-13-56-56 10563.1 OPTION 2015-03-27-14-08-32 -37867.7 STOCK 2015-03-30-10-56-39 3415.8 STOCK 2015-03-30-15-55-13 4664.2 OPTION 2015-03-31-15-58-45 6398.3 STOCK 2015-04-01-15-49-31 -4098.7 OPTION 2015-04-01-15-46-59 -9589.2 STOCK 2015-04-01-11-43-17 1796.4 OPTION 2015-04-02-13-11-22 -5157 STOCK 2015-04-02-13-12-24 4102.2 STOCK 2015-04-02-15-09-53 -926.1 OPTION 2015-04-02-15-11-30 -207.4 OPTION 2015-04-02-15-10-22 302.6 STOCK 2015-04-02-15-09-30 3594.8
Actually the swing started from November. I had a 75% month in October. Since then it has been turbulent as seen from this chart (starting with the 331K starting balance for November - I have withdrawn some money since then of course)
How are you holding up psychologically ?. Aren't you emotionally drained ? These swings must be alternatively exhilarating and nerve-wracking...