Congrats for the year! I guess it is time to look back and analyze your performance. The last 12 weeks' performance is scary to say the least. The first 6 weeks ( Oct- mid-Nov) you made 242K (scary good) and the second 6 weeks you lost 163K (scary bad). So basicly in the same timeframes of 6-6 weeks you lost 2/3rd of the previous gains. That is something to think about... Also maybe you could give something more positive title to the 2015 journal, like Back in the saddle again, or The road to consistency... Best wishes for the next year and thanks for the journal!!
I have followed Neke's journal as it is raw and one can really learn a lot. Losing a good chunck of previous gains : any advice regarding that?
There is a mix-up in the calculation above. Just re-did it and the net percentages should be as follows Code: stock4 0.667 option4 0.522 option2 0.207 stock5 0.121 option1 0.016 stock2 0.004 stock1 -0.111 stock3 -0.196 1.231
For 2015, I have set percentage targets for the strategies as follows. I have also renamed the strategies with better initials for me to correlate. (0.10 means 10%) Code: Strategy 2015 Targ Former Name STK-FCS 0.30 stock4 OPN-FCR 0.22 option4 OPN-OPM 0.15 option2 STK-ATM 0.10 stock5 OPN-EPL 0.05 option1 STK-PMS 0.05 stock1 STK-PML 0.05 stock2 STK-CNO 0.05 split from stock3 STK-CNT 0.03 split from stock3 TOTAL 1.00
From your definition that would be 1.65 from the monthly figures earlier posted. Not sure whether this is good or bad.
Not starting a new journal for 2015, will just keep the monthly updates here. From your analysis (and like I know very well), there is no smooth sailing even here - it is still a battle. I hope obeying restrictions on my trades will make it a smoother ride.
According to Schwager, for liquid strategies, a Gain to Pain Ratio of over 1.0 is very good and over 1.5 is excellent. Did you calculate yours using the percentage per month...i forgot to mention that before, apols.
In isolation, it's neither good nor bad. Performance is better analyzed in the context of the overall trading strategies. For example, some highly profitable trading strategies have a high win rate, but the small % of losses are relatively large. So giving back 2/3 of gains at a given point would be "good" (3 steps forward, 2 steps back, net result = consistently profitable trading over time). If giving back 2/3 of gains was the result of straying from the methods that produced positive expectancy during the testing phase, then it would be "bad" (places the trader at a high risk of ruin). If giving back 2/3 of gains was the result of circumstances not encountered during the testing phase, then it would be a signal to re-evaluate the strategies affected by those circumstances.
Period Update for January 1/3/2015 - 1/31/2015 (4 weeks) Great start to the new year, up 49.5K (19%). It was a roller-coaster month, first down near -30K, then got as high as +64K, then this week almost gave back the gains, but then rebounded to close +49K. I certainly took too many trades. Combination of increased volatility and earning season. Will work on better selectivity next month. The two best performing strategies for last year accounted for the gains this month. Rough start on STK-CNT and STK-ATM. Lost more than my target gain for the year in the former. Will be implementing some restrictions and size reductions on that strategy. I am sticking with the Net Percentage target for the year of +100%. However, because of the expected benefit of compounding, I am setting a dollar target of $400K for the year as in the attachment. Code: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Opening Balance: 256,099 Net gain for period 49,492 Cash Withdrawal (3,500) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 302.091 For the Thread YTD 2015 (1/3/2015 - 1/31/2015) Opening Balance: 256,099 Net gain 49,492 (Up 19%) Cash Withdrawal (3,500) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 302,091 ---------------------- TRADES TYPE Exit Date/Time P/L OPTION 2015-01-05-14-55-32 -12913.7 STOCK 2015-01-05-15-30-05 1285.3 OPTION 2015-01-05-15-11-21 -11149 STOCK 2015-01-05-15-36-57 -1907.9 STOCK 2015-01-05-12-34-54 -2792.2 STOCK 2015-01-05-14-00-17 -1421.6 STOCK 2015-01-06-15-45-02 4677 STOCK 2015-01-06-15-33-45 167.8 OPTION 2015-01-06-14-44-15 -3270.3 OPTION 2015-01-06-14-44-18 5555.6 OPTION 2015-01-06-15-05-29 2510.7 OPTION 2015-01-06-15-15-35 5004.6 STOCK 2015-01-07-11-58-20 23013.4 STOCK 2015-01-07-15-55-14 1926.6 OPTION 2015-01-08-10-45-07 4378.5 OPTION 2015-01-08-14-45-26 8569.7 OPTION 2015-01-08-10-13-50 -6294.1 STOCK 2015-01-09-12-17-20 116 OPTION 2015-01-09-13-04-34 11414.4 STOCK 2015-01-12-11-46-25 7455.7 STOCK 2015-01-12-10-53-40 5006.3 STOCK 2015-01-12-14-34-00 -486.8 OPTION 2015-01-12-15-35-59 1304.1 OPTION 2015-01-13-15-49-17 -3490.1 OPTION 2015-01-13-15-47-29 -3301.9 OPTION 2015-01-13-15-54-02 -2282.2 OPTION 2015-01-13-15-58-52 1717.7 OPTION 2015-01-14-10-33-32 1337.7 OPTION 2015-01-14-10-15-16 -7581.6 OPTION 2015-01-14-10-05-49 -7268.2 OPTION 2015-01-15-11-05-35 2946.7 STOCK 2015-01-14-15-48-32 2248.3 STOCK 2015-01-14-15-37-34 98 OPTION 2015-01-14-16-08-07 2664.8 OPTION 2015-01-14-15-39-57 -2620.7 OPTION 2015-01-14-15-30-19 5664 STOCK 2015-01-14-15-55-16 1327.4 STOCK 2015-01-15-12-01-09 1416.1 STOCK 2015-01-15-14-59-29 1236 STOCK 2015-01-15-12-05-12 85.9 OPTION 2015-01-15-15-00-17 924.8 OPTION 2015-01-15-15-00-28 -1228.5 STOCK 2015-01-16-15-49-04 3419.9 OPTION 2015-01-16-15-48-45 8577.7 STOCK 2015-01-20-15-44-59 -1678.7 STOCK 2015-01-20-16-15-58 1343.7 OPTION 2015-01-22-10-29-34 205.3 OPTION 2015-01-21-15-50-59 -2767.6 OPTION 2015-01-22-14-26-38 -2729.1 STOCK 2015-01-22-11-17-02 888.9 OPTION 2015-01-23-10-23-19 14779.9 STOCK 2015-01-23-15-55-18 -3027.6 OPTION 2015-01-23-15-33-31 -2239.8 OPTION 2015-01-23-15-49-58 2051.7 OPTION 2015-01-23-15-46-36 9067.4 STOCK 2015-01-26-15-43-23 444.9 OPTION 2015-01-26-15-54-09 -5201.2 OPTION 2015-01-26-15-54-07 -4241.2 STOCK 2015-01-26-14-12-34 445.4 OPTION 2015-01-27-15-49-19 -3535.9 OPTION 2015-01-27-15-58-05 -1449.1 STOCK 2015-01-27-15-56-33 -749.8 OPTION 2015-01-27-15-51-14 -3048.1 OPTION 2015-01-27-15-53-27 -441.3 OPTION 2015-01-29-13-26-42 2523.6 STOCK 2015-01-28-15-23-12 -12124.4 OPTION 2015-01-28-14-01-20 -6283.8 STOCK 2015-01-28-15-51-27 -7679.4 STOCK 2015-01-29-09-39-27 2059.8 STOCK 2015-01-29-12-10-39 3536.9 STOCK 2015-01-29-13-28-08 3783.3 OPTION 2015-01-29-13-42-42 8209.6 STOCK 2015-01-30-11-36-21 -2098.4 OPTION 2015-01-30-12-00-07 9171.8[ATTACH]148858[/ATTACH] [ATTACH]148859[/ATTACH] OPTION 2015-01-30-15-45-16 11305.1 STOCK 2015-01-30-15-38-18 1794.3 STOCK 2015-01-30-15-37-51 -2676.5 OPTION 2015-01-30-15-46-52 -5246.6 OPTION 2015-01-30-15-39-23 -2943.3