Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by stoic, Jan 12, 2013.
Jan. 2013 Soy Crush Spread
Do you trade these?
BO Jan. vs Mar. '13 Spread
it's the most researched historically, and many beleive the most efficient of all spreads known to man
there's a very good old fashioned analysis by some professors up there at Chicago that studied it for many years, published in the 1960's
the commission rate they used was back then before deregulation, $75/rt
I never traded it in the past, but tried for the first time understanding it about a year ago, and got my head handed to me by trying to substitute options for certain legs
i'd guess that looks low.. ? haha
substituting options just makes it messy.. possibly buying deep otm calls or puts for blow out protection makes sense..
well, or in my case just avoiding it altogether, but like I said, it's extremely efficient, so I was trying to find an "edge".
I always knew about it, it's been around forever, and I had clients that put it on, but they had commercial interests in beans, so you never could tell by what happened in their commodity account if it was an actual profit or loss to them in real life.
I was quite the beginner, I didn't even know the formula, so I got what I deserved
Hello Again, stoic.
I hope and i wish to be well.
I decide to contact this hour here for to ask you something.
As you mention in a previous Post you hold a Spread Database going back to 1974.
So, i want to ask you something.
Do you have Data for Wheat into the:
a) Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ),
b) Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ),
c) Minneapolis Grain Exchange ( MGEX ) ?
That Data have all the Trading Months in each Year ?
That Data is in Daily Format or in a less Format than a Day ?
does not cover them.
From you where got that Data ?
may i ask you,
if you hold any positions in Wheat Spreads ?
Right now, i have create 3 positions:
1) Long Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat May 2013 / Short Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ) Wheat May 2013,
2) Long Minneapolis Grain Exchange ( MGEX ) Wheat May 2013 / Short Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat May 2013,
3) Long Minneapolis Grain Exchange ( MGEX ) Wheat September 2013 / Short Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat September 2013.
sounds like the same contract at different exchanges.. whats the risk?
What do you mean exactly ?
My Stop Loss Points ?
1) -10 Pips,
2) 0 Pips,
3) 0 Pips.
I decide to get in especially to 2) and 3),
because i believe that will exist at least a bad Spring Weather ( Drought Conditions ),
for the Southern & Northern U.S.A Plains.
Also, for Canada i believe the same for their Spring Weather.
Also, i consider a lot the Indian Winter Wheat Crop Situation and the Russian Winter and Sping Wheat Crop.
Russians and Ukraines does not have a lot Wheat in their hands,
The Europeans are now not competitive to the U.S.A Wheat.
Seems that soon will be out from the Market.
Have make a very serious mistake.
Have sold a lot of their Wheat.
I am trying to make tremendous patience.
I am trying a lot with these Wheat Spreads to focus in the better quality Wheat.
Also, i have a focus without to create any position right now to this Futures Contract:
Minneapolis Wheat July 2013.
It is the last Futures Contract for the Year 2012-2013, there.
If exist first,
serious troubles in the U.S.A Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop,
and then in the U.S.A Hard Red Spring Wheat Crop,
then i believe,
that the last Futures Contract of the Year 2012-2013 in Minneapolis,
must raise quite a lot.
Separate names with a comma.