Weekly Update for weeks 45,46,47/50 ended 12/7/2012 Now that the account balance is above 100K (even if be for just this week), an update is reasonable. For the three weeks, made 13.9K (15%), while taking out 5K for the month ended 11/30/2012. A good amount of work has been concentrated on getting automated/mechanical trades that should provide 5K a month (equivalent of what I'm pulling out), while leaving the real discretionary trades to rare high-conviction option trades that would grow the balance. Not yet there but still defining all the minimum rules for every trade that can be enforced by my system. As for keeping my hands off the system, that is already not possible if I am at work, since I have removed that ability to remotely shut it down. If for any reason I am at home on a trading day, I am enlisting the help of my wife to check and make sure I don't do what I did the last time. Will be staggering my updates now to once every two weeks. As before, updates will stop if the account drops below 100K. Code: Opening Balance: 92,480 Net gain for period 13,945 Cash Withdrawal (5,000) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 101,425 Since Inception of Thread 01/18/2012 - 12/7/2012 Opening Balance: 203,729 Net loss (47,304)(Down 23%) Cash Withdrawal (55,000) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 101,425
You can't set up a system to provide 5K, you have to take what is given in market conditions. You are a gambler and need help. If a system could be designed to give 5K a month on 100K in account everyone would be doing this.
I feel the same way Nursebee does, mainly because of the above. If you have definitions for what constitutes a "high conviction" trade, then it can be automated. There's no reason to trade anything other than high conviction setups, if your label is based on statistical analysis. However, if "high conviction" is defined by your discretion, then you are gambling. Why would you have averaged into such large losses in the past if you didn't have really, really high conviction the market would turn around and produce a profit for you? You see, "high conviction" needs to be definable, therefore codable should you prove incapable of taking and managing such trades properly, which you've already proven many times. There's no reason whatsoever for a trader who's been incapable of following the rules for years to take on discretionary trades. You're remembering the discretionary trades that worked out and labeling them "high conviction", while conveniently forgetting the ones that failed terribly, which were just as "high conviction" to you upon initiation as the winners, but in hindsight seem ridiculous to you. This is a bias that's part of human nature and not easy to overcome once we step into the trading arena. It's a large part of what makes consistently profitable trading so difficult. We easily become addicted to random rewards in such a limitless environment where the winning trades are randomly distributed, even in positive expectancy systems. Combine that with our insatiable need to be right, and it becomes a very dangerous arena in which to gamble.
I don't normally agree with NoDoji, but in this case I might make an exception....LOL (totally joking as I have nothing but love for NoDoji) There should only really be "one conviction" and that is either you have a known edge or you don't. An edge can come from more than backtesting (my method), it can and is possible to look at a chart and trade it. The difference in looking at a chart and simply trading it based on what appears to be a good "high conviction" setup and "wanting a fix" is the outcome. If you're making money over the long run and it's working, then you maybe have an edge. I say "maybe" because standard deviation can be a heartless bitch at times. Best of luck Neke, and I hope your journal makes it to this time next year. I suggest you take some time off, read some books, and reboot. Behavioral finance books are a great place to learn about what's going on under the hood. Maybe write some articles about your trading ideas, you have a lot to offer, so no need to go into a death spiral with your account. The markets will still be there when you're mentally recharged and ready to think in terms of winning, instead of mentally framing the situation as "survival" Respectfully, Robert
Robert, Since you are now getting over a wrist problem and trading fulltime again, albeit with suretrader and not IB anymore, I can only hope your journal survives until this time next year.
No update for 2 weeks. Is that good news or bad? We have to assume the account is back under 100K again...
Like I said the updates will be every two weeks, as long as the account stays above 100K, so an update should have been made last week-end but the account is once more below 100K.