Didn't you also say this country would never elect a Black President? In the 1960's they said this country would never elect a Roman Catholic. I get really tired of the we will never elect a _____. Whether that be a Jew, woman, Mormon, latino, Italian, etc. Let's just all agree that sooner or later, this country will elect someone from all these groups. You know it, I know it, everyone on ET knows it. Having said that, I agree it will take someone of phenomenal character from these groups to win people over. I think both Huntsman and Romney have those qualities. I favor Huntsman over Romney on character and integrity.
I strongly, strongly disagree on this. You don't understand. While it maybe true Palin will always have her followers, she will lose the money. I'm sorry Zzz, but you know the only reason people are throwing money at her right and left is because of the "possibility" that she will be President. There is a strong data set that shows this to be true of all Presidential contenders and it's why so many people throw out the possibility of running even though they never do. Because it brings in money. Case in point, look at Donald Trump. Once the people with deep pockets see her actually get killed in an actual election, she will never get paid 50k to give a 10 minute speech ever again. Sure she will write books. Maybe Fox news will keep her on board, but her pocketbook will get a lot lighter. It simply makes no financial sense. From a risk to reward standpoint it's suicide. If she strings this along over the next 10 years, she could seriously become one of the wealthiest and most powerful people in the Republican party that never holds a public office...think Rush Limbaugh. Why do you think Rush has never run for office?
Yes, I did, and were it not for Bush, it never would have happened. So, anything is possible, but I find it unlikely that the southern man, who is looking forward to Jesus coming back, cares nothing for polluting the earth, thinks he is saved by Jesus actually cares who is president. They look to what they believe is a higher power, and the nutcases that think Obama is the anti-Christ believe it is necessary in their grand scheme of things. Vote for a Mormon? Do you really believe the deep south redneck Christian would vote for a Mormon? I could be wrong, but in several hundred years those folks don't seem to have changed their position on social and religious issues all that much... Look, this isn't a knock on Romney, he is likely the most qualified republican at the moment...I just don't think he will get the Christian right vote...and if he does get the nomination, I believe a Christian right third party candidate will rise up out of self righteousness and be the "Jesus" party candidate that would hurt Romney much more than Obama.
First of all, she is not Ross Perot. Palin is a money grubbing, egotistical, attention whore. She is all about herself. If her base wants her to run as an independent because the GOP candidate is not right enough...she is going to say now? Palin is her own industry right now, even trying to trademark her own name. Her trollop daughter is thinking of running for some office. It is just nuts, she is a reality TV show...but look around, did you ever think 30 years ago that reality TV shows would be so popular? Palin's message is attack, attack, attack...like Beck, the buffoon Limbaugh and others, there is a huge audience of people who just want to hear someone blame, blame, blame. Palin has never offered any practical cogent solutions to the major problems of this country...yet her popularity amongst her base is unyielding. Sure, her ego would push her to third party...and if she lost, so what? She gets a talk show and more reality TV. Her popularity won't fade...simply because she is an illusion who does nothing really, but act as a flame thrower...and eternal critic and victim at the same time...and unless the electorate wises up...which is unlikely, she will remain on the stage making the money she craves. Yes, I think she will go rogue and run third party if the GOP nominee isn't right enough, or doesn't offer some special deal to keep her trap shut.
Never under estimate the Christian right vote to influence an election. Third party candidates always hurt one candidate more than another. Clinton never would have been elected if it was not for Perot.
I agree completely. A third party right wing candidate is Obama's best hope. I don't see a strong far left wing challenger, but I do see the windbaggers being obstinate enough, and ego driven enough, and self righteous enough to make a strong push third party... Does your American history knowledge include the Bull Moose Party of Teddy Roosevelt?
All the points you made support the fact she won't run. I agree with you that she is greedy and narcissistic and is in this for the money and the money is what she will get if she doesn't run. People around her are starting to turn on her. First it was establishment republicans now it's the tea party. The only reason you don't see more attacks towards her from the right is because no one has announced their candidacy yet. As soon as a few do and they start to draw support, others will feel safer attacking her.
I see Dennis Kucinch as a possibility for a third party run. He would get a lot of right wing libertarians behind him as well as the Ron Paul crowd if he doesn't run. I still am not ruling out Howard Dean. There are some very angry progressives that now are fully aware that their candidate has sold out. They are as stubborn as the Christian right and they will get their candidate one way or another even if they have to vote 3rd party. The Christian right won't back Palin, they will back Huckabee. I don't see Huckabee getting the nomination.
Her real base is not turning on her. The more people attack her, from left or right, the stronger her base becomes in their blind support of her. She is the type of person who feeds on the criticism, simply because it allows her to play the victim...and her base eats that shit up. I continue to believe the more criticism she gets from left and right, the more it keeps her in the spotlight, the stronger the chance that she goes rogue and third party. Much has to depend on whom the GOP nominee is, but her base I would guess is 10 to 15% of the electorate, and that is enough to get her into the race and have influence. What we see right now is a pretty divided GOP. Sure, the GOP won the 2010 elections as a reactionary move against the dems...but that is not the same as a united GOP. The Christian right will back her unless the GOP puts up the right Christian, i.e. not a Mormon.
Kuchinich would pull what, 3%? How much did Nader pull? 3%? How much did Ron Paul pull? 3%? These people are not of the celebrity status as Palin, they are no real threat.