Weekly Update for week 28/50 ended 7/22/2011 Bad week, down 10K (4.7%). Should have been a nice week, with little losses and better gains, but came IDCC on Wed and knocked nearly 21K off my automated and discretionary foray. Had a chance to get out, but failed to act before an afternoon rally took my losses to stupid levels. Code: Opening Balance: 224,066 Net loss for the week 10,019 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 214,047 Number of Trades 18 Number of Profitable Trades 7 Since Inception of Thread 01/8/2011 - 7/22/2011 Opening Balance: 335,899 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) 121,852 (Down 36%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 214,047 Number of Trades 537 Number of Profitable Trades 278
I don't know the whole history of your trading but it's quite obvious in the past months maybe year or year(s) you do not have positive expectancy. On the contrary you have negative expectancy and it's depleting your account. Maybe I'm stating the obvious, not sure. FoN
No trading scheme has positive expectancy. None. It is a myth. Clearly, Neke doesn't know what he is doing. For all we know, his posts could just be an elaborate hoax.
If u look at past history of neke, he has the ability to recover back fast 40k, 50k continuously, somehow it will happen if history repeats
I am a fan and have been following your journey since day one. You are to be truly admired. I should also say that I have never met a trader who made money consistently by buying options. I believe I understand what you are going through because I sell options for a living. My goal is 2% per month. With all the market ups and downs, the system I am following made an audited return of 15% each year for the last 5 years. You increased your starting capital a lot but lately you seem to have a hard time. The natural question is...have you ever considered giving up on your discretionary trades and focusing only on your systematic trades ? Do you want to be right or do you want to make money ? Maybe it is time to ask yourself why you trade and listen carefully to the answer.
Neke needs a period of high volatility, where he can catch big one way moves, he needs a market like 2008 all over again.. not just neke, nearly all traders traders do well in easy markets with big one way moves (either up or down) in the time frame they are trading (intra day in neke's case). Neke needs to conserve capital until he gets good markets. until then he will be just churning his account.. even worse it might stay in steady decline like it is currently. He should use money management techniques and reduce risk until his account equity is showing consistent growth. he should have done this long ago, but it is never too late. In his last post he said he let a loss run too much, so is he trading without stops in the market? Many traders do trade without stops.. it will boost win percentage, but will give big losses every so often.
He needs to adjust or this drawdown will continue until his account goes to zero. He's still trading the way he did back when he had success in '08-'09. If he doesn't adapt to new environment he'll eventually end up with rest of flameouts. He's still in the denial stage. I hope he doesn't go through rest of the grief stage(http://tinyurl.com/oajk4 ).
Please try not to make newb suggestions like this. These accounts appear to be real, and you'd have to be psychotic to think he decided four years ago to spend every friday posting to a weekly personal journal for the fun of it. No, neke's trading real money. I wouldn't doubt that, and this subject has come up more than a few times in the past. This possibility is not constructive to consider, but he doesn't seem to want anyone's advice so I'm sure it's for his own posterity.