Its hard to say fear doesn't sell. It may be that my commentary is just boring, but the initial post did have substance. I can't help but notice posts with far less content that generate a great deal more interest. The only common factor is the negative outlook they share. I'm going to take the optimistic look on humanity and assume I'm just boring.
The just passed tax bill has one very important component that by itself will ensure a strong next two years. Companies will be able to write off 100% of new cap purchases (large durables) in 2011. This will finally get the economy out of the ditch and upgrade our manufacturing base to be much more competetive through increased efficiency. Once things get rolling again, Obama will be re-elected and be able to finally get rid of all the Bush tax cuts in order to work on the huge debt. This includes middle class. Look for gold to come back down below $700, oil to move in the $110-140 bbl. range and the stock market to hit dow 16,500. The dollar will gain strength, and unemployment will be at 7.5 by 2013. ...and so it has been foretold! Rennicktradomus out
Where have I heard that line before? Oh, I know in - Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Mar 2008 Apr 2008 May 2008 June 2008 Jul 2008 Aug 2008 Sep 2008 Oct 2008 Nov 2008 Dec 2008 Every month of 2009 Every month of 2010 Whoever says this will be right one day.................
I've been hearing that line now for over 2 years as well. One day the jobs will return but it's not going to happen in 2011-2012.
But will the benefits? I'm on the "still employed" side of the equation but as of now lost 17% of pay/benefits package since 2007. No salary increase since 2004/5. So although I'm employed I've become a "tiny" consumer and a "tiny" saver. If/as things improve... I'll still be a "tiny" consumer and grow my savings side. I believe the above trend will slow the recovery more than economists realize. It's different this time.
If the same person made countless predictions and then continuously were false until one day they were right I would agree with your sentiment. However, I made this call about a week ago and unlike your example I haven't been a screaming bull since 2008. There were times throughout the recession that I was a mega bear. Facts change, outlooks change, and as a result my forecast changed. I was cautious while it paid to be cautious. I now feel like the midterm outlook is bullish for the US. I think American business is going to start making some money again. If I'm wrong, at the end of next year I will bump this thread myself so you can all have a good laugh.
The people predicting a comeback in the economy and stock market were the fools years ago who didn't see the huge credit crisis coming, that the housing market was going to continue to run up 10-25% a year, unemployment rates would stay at a low 4% forever and GDP would continue to be strong at 4%. If things are so wonderful and great as people are predicting then why the fuck did they sign another 2 FULL years of tax cuts, another 13 months of unemployment benefits and have another round of QE. I'm so tired of people thinking things are turning around for the better when all you keep hearing is news of how they still have to push more trillions into the system. All these small pockets of strength are coming from the free fucking monopoly money Bubble ben bernanke keeps printing. Why doesn't anyone have a clue. GDP growth as of this very second is nothing but an illusion, take away all the free trillions Bubble ben bernanke is printing and you would be lucky to see anything more than 0% GDP growth rate for this economy. Stop with the nonsense and lies.
The tax cuts keep 700+ billion from being removed from the credit system where they can be used for loans at up to ten times there dollar figure. If the money was taken in as tax and spent directly the multiplier is only 1. Some studies suggest this number could be slightly higher, but I disagree with this notion and the number is significantly less regardless of how you calculate it. Now about QE. The first QE was about funding projects that will increase productivity while at the same time shoring up the balance sheets of the lending institutions. This was obviously the reason for the huge move in bonds. This rally has helped companies to fund projects at lower interest rates and has helped improve profitability. QE2, in my opinion, is about pushing private investment out of the treasuries market and making capital seek real returns in other bond and equity markets. Furthermore, Obama has presented his proposal for the reworked tax plan and it is very pro growth. This is a fiscally conservative plan that cuts the deficit, promotes investment in America, stops the government from crowding out private investment, and ends government manipulation of real estate markets. With a republican house and a few democrat votes in the senate he can get this passed. It would be a huge step forward for America. We are good businessmen. Anyone who says otherwise is not looking at the facts. America is on her way back. You can disagree with me, that's ok. But saying anyone who thinks this isn't the end of the world is a lying fraud is a little much. There are people out there with different opinions than you, that's what makes the game we call trading.
here is my view for '11: 1. recession in 2011. On average 2 years after financial panic, recession starts. After stimuluses withdrawn. Do you really think people controlling printing press will print themselves out their power ? 2. Madoff effect: there may be ETF or other funds/superannuation defaults, like insect eaten by spider, only shell there (10 % money left, ) . This funds could have been 1 source for stimulating. Can have large negative effect on markets in general as people panic and sell /withdraw. 3. Global tensions deepening, econominc issues turning into political, what is moral, right etc will be challenged. Number of terrorists increasing, EU leading the way here.