2010 Senate Races

Discussion in 'Politics' started by eminitrader007, Aug 5, 2009.

  1. Although the election is still a year away Democrats have a very good chance of getting 65 seats but we can't sit on our ass and expect to win. We need to remind people that President Obama has rescued the economy and kept us safe from the terrorists. There are 37 seats that are up for election and Democrats have to defend 17 seats and Republicans have to defend 20 seats. Here is the breakdown. (This was sent as an email by a friend so I do not have the link to the source but if anyone finds it please post it here).

    Safe Democratic: 8 (DE, HI, IN, MD, NY, OR, VT, PA)
    Likely Democratic: 5 (AR, CA, ND, WA, WI)
    Leans Democratic: 4 (CO, CT, NV, NY)
    Total Democratic: 17

    Tossup: 7 (FL, IL, KY, MO, NH, NC, OH)

    Safe Republican: 6 (AL, GA, ID, SC, SD, UT)
    Likely Republican: 5 (AK, AZ, IO, OK, TX)
    Leans Republican: 2 (KS, LA)
    Total Republican: 13

    Here are the Tossup states.

    Incumbent: Mel Martinez - retiring, Republican
    Prediction: Tossup
    Analysis: Martinez sensed that he was vulnerable and will be retiring after having only served one term. Jeb Bush, brother of former President George W. Bush, has stated that he will not seek the seat. A number of Democrats and Republicans have expressed an interest in running, and the race is likely to be one of the most expensive in 2010.

    ILLINOIS - special and regular election
    Incumbent: Roland Burris, Democrat
    Prediction: Tossup
    Analysis: Burris starts in a weak position, having been appointed under controversy by corruption-plagued Rod Blagojevich to fill the remainder of President Barack Obama's Senate term. It is unclear whether Burris intends to stand in the 2010 elections; two elections will be held, one to determine who serves until January 3, 2011 and another to determine who will serve out a full six-year term.

    Incumbent: Jim Bunning, Republican
    Prediction: Tossup
    Analysis: Bunning barely won reelection in 2004 with 51 percent of the vote, and there are numerous rumors that Bunning is suffering from dementia and has lost his grip on reality (look up "Bunning" and "little green doctors" on YouTube). The National Republican Senatorial Committee, along with Kentucky colleague and minority leader, Mitch McConnell, has been not-so-subtly encouraging Bunning to retire so that the Republicans can field a stronger candidate. A number of Kentucky Democrats with strong statewide name-recognition, including Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo (who ran the tight race against Bunning in 2004), have expressed an interest in the seat. If Bunning still ends up running for reelection, Democrats would have a good chance of picking up this seat.

    Incumbent: Kit Bond - retiring, Republican
    Prediction: Tossup
    Analysis: Republican Jim Talent, a former senator who lost in his reelection bid in 2006, is rumored to be considering a run for the seat. Just about every other Democratic and Republican politician with statewide name recognition in Missouri is considering a run, too, meaning that the race is shaping up to be quite competitive.

    Incumbent: Judd Gregg, Republican
    Prediction: Tossup
    Analysis: With New Hampshire and New England becoming increasingly Democratic in their congressional delegations, any Republican, including Gregg, would likely be facing a tough election bid. It is unclear whether Gregg's abortive run as Secretary of Commerce nominee will help or hurt him.

    Incumbent: Richard Burr, Republican
    Prediction: Tossup
    Analysis: North Carolina surprised many political experts by voting for Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election and voting out Republican Elizabeth Dole in favor of a relatively unknown state senator, Kay Hagan, for US Senate. Burr has had one of the weakest approval ratings of any senator after his election to the Senate in 2004 (often in the 30s, sometimes the 20s); his strong support for Bush's policies as well as his antagonism towards funding higher education in a state that is home to many universities and college students is likely to come back to haunt him. No incumbent senator has been reelected in North Carolina since Republican Jesse Helms in 1996, in a race that drew attention to Helms's racist and homophobic beliefs. Furthermore, Burr's particular seat is often thought of as North Carolina's "buyer's remorse" seat since no incumbent for the seat has been reelected since 1968. Former Governor Mike Easley, Attorney General Roy Cooper, and former State Treasurer Richard Moore have all been mentioned as Democratic contenders for the 2010 Senate race; all of them have strong statewide name-recognition and may well be able to defeat Burr.

    Incumbent: George Voinovich - retiring, Republican
    Prediction: Leans Democratic
    Analysis: Numerous Republicans, including former Senator Mike DeWine, and Democrats with statewide name recognition, such as Secretary of State Jennifer Bruner, are rumored to have expressed an interest in running for Voinovich's seat. Voinovich is said to have retired in part due to polling showing that he would be vulnerable in a reelection bid. With Ohio trending Democratic in recent elections, coupled with an Ohio Republican Party crippled by corruption allegations in the last few years, this race bodes well for Democrats.
  2. skylr33


    If Obama get's his socialized, rationed health care passed, it would be the equivalent of the Democratic party committing political suicide, and your post would be absolutely meaningless. LOL!!!!
    The Democrats would get slaughtered in 2010 & 2012, and you can then thank your dictator-in-chief for that!:D

  3. You actually have PA listed as a safe democrat. What are you smoking? The current polling has Specter 45% Toomey 44% with a 3% MOE. How is that a safe democrat? Specter is even in a primary battle so he might not even be on the ticket. Your analysis is horrible.
  4. This was sent to me by someone as I mentioned in the fist paragraph. It seems that this was done before Specter switched parties with the assumption that he will lose in the Republican primary.

    The main thing is that we need to win 2 more seats to get to 60 without the independents, but it is always better to set the goal a little higher.
  5. Likely scenario: Dems lose 6-12 seats in the House. Little change in the Senate. Dems may gain NC and NH but lose IL and CT.
  6. If it was done before Specter switched then how could it be called a safe democrat seat. Your response is even more bizarre than the original post.
  7. I said "seems that", it was just my assumption. I'll see if I can find the actual analysis.

    Even if we consider that a toss-up or a Lean Republican, the chances of a Democratic majority is looking good. I understand that the election is still a year away and a lot can happen from now to then but we need to keep reminding people how President Obama has kept us safe from the terrorists, the markets have confidence in him and how miserable the country was the last 8 years.
  8. skylr33


  9. Reagan already proved that deficits don't matter.:D
  10. skylr33


    Is that the best you can come up with to counter the fact that Obama will end up spending trillions more that Bush could ever dream of? LOL!!!!! I knew you were weak, but not that weak. lol:D
    #10     Aug 7, 2009