When did I say Republicans were not in danger? They are without a doubt in more danger. When did I say there would be a strong third party liberal candidate? You and your assumptions. All I am saying is that the possible scenarios of Obama losing reelection have increased because of his policies thus far. Do I think the odds of him winning are still in his favor? Of course. Do I think conservatives have the ability of royally screwing up 2012? Of course. If Republicans nominate a somewhat moderate Republican and conservatives are politically smart enough to forget about a third party candidate then Obama will have some problems. Not as many disappointed liberals will be motivated to vote against a moderate Republican and a larger portion of independents will vote for a moderate Republican. This scenario isn't probable, but it is possible.
My prediction is that Obama will win the presidential election comfortably. However, I doubt we will see the 10-1 odds that made him such an attractive intrade bet back in the day. Ideally, Obama gets the mid-term blues, driving him down to maybe 25% on intrade. And to be honest he's a good bet anywhere below about 35%.