More than 1 million jobs would be cut in 2009. According to CNNMoney. 2008 was just the start... The number of tech jobs was around 85,000 a few months ago and continues to slide. IT spending cuts in 2009 will be significant. The new motto is "more with less." http://www.dice.com/ http://www.hunterstrat.com/news/more-microsoft-january-2009-layoff-rumors/ Advertising and Marketing budgets will shrink considerably. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/08/ad-industry-predicts-horr_n_149250.html http://www.nowpublic.com/culture/advertising-industry-projects-massive-2009-layoffs http://www.nypost.com/seven/12082008/business/ads_subtracting_143211.htm Aviation Industry Cutting Back: http://article.wn.com/view/2008/11/22/Boeing_warns_of_2009_layoffs/ http://www.usaviation.com/forums/lofiversion/index.php/t44102.html Shipping and Delivery: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_U/threadview?m=tm&bn=19022&tid=103621&mid=103855&tof=2&rt=2&frt=2&off=1 Big Pharma: http://www.fiercepharma.com/story/will-pfizer-layoffs-hit-again-january/2008-12-08 http://layoffblog.com/2008/12/22/wa...-january-february-2009-in-california-hi-tech/ Hold tight, the fun has only just begun. 2009 will be known as the year America learned to do more with less.
If the entire market is already expecting 8-9% unemployment (common knowledge), how is this even shortable at this point in time? You won't be able to 'sell the news' until the fiscal stimulus shows it does not work at all (mid 2009). Only when the view of unemployment expands from 8-9% to 11-15% do you have an opportunity to short the S&P.
Once the $1 Trillion stimulus package passed; market will probably go downhill, not enough. Works like a clock.
Dude, I think the magnitude of this bear rally ain't gonna be as much or as long as you hope. Best use for this thing is to get out of structural long positions (401k, etc..) and buy value 'cause that stimulus plan is going to either take a long time to work or be a useless cash injection that is saved & goes into banks or to pay off debt. Its optimism alone that is buoying us up at this point - nothing else. I give it until march at the most, and it might be as quick lived as the end of this month. Much badness abounds - wait until folks get their tax bills and realize they can't pay it because their investment portfolios have been decimated. And no more heloc to tap. What spending is going to be there to pull us out? No way. Rally upon sentiment only but its not based upon anything else but 'hope' and 'change'.
Anyone want to take a bet as to what this number will be in six months? It's gone from 60,000 to 57,000 in just a few days and January has only begun. It was 85,000 just around summer/fall 2008. I would guess we see mid 20k by summer this year. http://www.dice.com/ So when we get those million infrastructure jobs coming down the pipe, what task force is going to see to it that joe the plumber is hired by the greedy construction companies and not jose and luis south of the border? Will it be 1 million jobs for the illegals or for the Americans? Ahh the lure of cheap labor. Stay tuned...
And then we got the neighbors flying the U.S. flag and hiring the illegals to work for them. Ahh the lure of greed and cheap labor will always produce hypocrites and false provado.
I think we're actually entering a secular bull market. Call me an optimist if you like, but the price action the past few months tells me that the bear is dead; main reason being that bear market rallies are violent. None of the rallies we've seen have been violent in the past 2 months. The trends look more slow-and-steady toward 1250.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=248&tid=15183&mid=15188&tof=1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1 http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=248&tid=15144&mid=15150&tof=9&rt=2&frt=2&off=1 How do you bring down labor costs in the US? Read above.