Yes, looked more up-down than it was if inflation were disregarded. In real terms it was a really big hill down, then a regular big hill down. Finding ourselves in 2016 (+/-) with a Dow @ ~8000 would be a reasonable fascimile.
A counter point here : There are others who have done well, myself included (not this yr but '08), using time frame recognition. It's by no means the holy grail, but it does give a basis to trade off that can be profitable.
Possible options or or So far. To me it looks only slightly better than Japan style unless we can continue back up to 1500. I think we may have another buying opportunity in 2010.
Was it ridiculous in 2000 to predict that stocks, and especially tech stocks, were a bad investment in general? Was it ridiculous in 2005 or 2006 to predict that real estate was not a good place to invest money? The point about grotesque over or undervaluation is that prices are so out of whack that you don't have to be able to predict the future with any precision. The margin of safety (or risk, for bubbles) is so great that you are almost certain to make money (or underperform massively) regardless of what happens. You are confusing forecasting with speculating.