well, as expected earnings on CNQR came in above the numbers, but I see that the shares are down. Any thoughts? Still, just as I actually expected, the stock is falling to about $38 and my break even was $38.40. That would put my loss at about -$80 to -$100 tomorrow depending on the price I close my options at. Now, it history can repeat, I want to see CNQR move like its last report and open lower only to close higher. That would be sweet, and fundamentals are in place with EPS guidance above estimates. So tempted to use the $4800 in BP to take in 100 shares at $37.90-$38.40. I will update on this situation tomorrow lol as it will be interesting to see how I can pull a hat trick on this trade.
yes, if you were expecting the earnings to be higher so was everyone else (at least in this case) so when the masses decided to liquidate (and quickly when others did the same) there where fewer than normal buyers (at price points) in after hours trading than normal. With earnings you have to seriously ask yourself what you know that the counterparty doesn't know and why are you doing the right thing and they are doing the wrong thing. If you don't have a good reason (to yourself) than you don't have a good reason to be in a trade if you expect to make money [/B][/QUOTE] If I understand this correctly your attempting to get a "meager" 50% or 150% return of your money in about six weeks time by using a stock picking (options in this case) advisory service. Why do you believe that they will be able to provide enough of an edge over the other market participants to allow you to obtain that kind of result? (granted your number is highly aggressive in my opinion but regardless of the number WHY do you believe this) I am not saying you can't achieve your goal or that the service that your paying for (assuming your paying and not paying very much if you working with $6,000 in capital) will not live up to your expectations but it appears that this plan on its face may lack at least a small amount of total due diligence. putting that aside I would also like to suggest that give some thoughts to a goal change. Maybe it would be worth while to think about having a goal of trading as good as you can and how to improve as you are trading. you may find that a change of goals from a dollar amount to a performance goal (in terms of developing a plan and executing it well and improving upon it) will in turn actually give you a better monetary result and lower your stress level. You may have only a few weeks left in this year but come jan it will not matter any longer as only the future will. Best of luck to you and I hope you do have a 150% or more return by the end of the year Robert
Well, I went back and looked at CNQR's recent report back in August, and noticed a few things: 1. the earnings beat, numbers were very good overall 2. CNQR closed at $34.50 area, opens lower following day under $33 (about a 4.6% lower open), then trades all the way back to close at $37 for 8% gain. 3. I am sorting hoping for the same thing to occurs this time around too. CNQR opens lower around $37-$39, I buy back the 40 calls for $0.05 to $0.15 and capture $410 on that cover, and then CNQR makes a move of 7-10% from its open back to $41-$44. If it occurs as I have set up for, then the reward is well worth the risk on this trade. As for the advisory service, I paid about $8,000 in fees since May 2008, I used $20,000 to start then, and through the hell the financial market went through, I made $120,000 of the service. They have been so-so lately, and although I liked the gains, I like the rush of doing my own trades. Hence, I'll use their recommendations and turn it into my own trade. They probably played it safer than me on this one though, their recommendation actually would have made money. Oh well, I like this rush right now with lots of possible outcome tomorrow morning. I can take comfort in that the after hours trade is only 20K shares and less than 5% of its daily average. Read somewhere that less than 10% of volume trades in after hours and premarket will less likely move the stock in that direction during trading hours.
Bought back CNQR 40 calls at $0.10 for a net gain $407. Realized gains are now $736.54, but I still have 200 shares CNQR with buy price at $40.65 and shares now at $36.70 for -$790..... I also have those nice LFT December 30 calls bought at $3.30 yesterday, now at $5.00 already limiting the risk on CNQR shares unrealized gain/loss is ($390), so I'm up $325 overall....not bad, considering the trade goes against me....will update once I change current trades or add new ones.
closed the 200 shares CNQR at $36.92, my total loss on the trade was -$776.12. Closed trades are now at -$39.58. Well, lesson learned on this trade is that I should have shorted the 35 calls at $6.30 and captured the gains. From what I saw, I could have closed out the 35 calls at $2.10 and returned $820 minus commission and I would have came out break even at worst. Should CNQR have rallied I would have bought back the 35 calls for a loss and just allow the 200 shares to run adding more gains at a lower rate, but lower risk. As for today, I bought 1 SHLD spread buy 80 calls and sell 85 calls for -$101.50. I figure its a small risk for a $500 potential return. I still have the other calls up slightly after LFT dropped. I also got 10 contracts of ABC December 15 calls at $1.55 for -$1,567.49. Overall, the open positions are up $220, so my account is at $6,114.92. I should have bought NTAP shares at $29.95 in AH too man what an easy miss as they are now at $30.65. 200 shares would have made a nice $140 in change. Still have a goal of $9,000 for end of year, or about 50% gain.
Well, maybe I should have taken the NTES put trade they recommended. Instead I went for the SHLD debit spread. Their recommendation was actually for a debit spread on both calls and puts. Buying SHLD 80/85 call spread, and SHLD 70/65 call spread. I think the total cost was $160 or so and the gain is suppose to be $500. I only took 1 contract and only the long side for about $90 plus comm. so I'm taking less risk. They also had a put trade out on GME November 24 puts at $0.75. Hope I'm not on the wrong side of this trade.
well, I'm stuffed.......my own modifications of the advisory service I've been using sucks. I've lost about ($1,180.82) modifying the CNQR and GMCR trades. On the other hand, since going back to taking their trades, my account is higher right now with realized gains at $1,265.30. That's a $2,000 difference. Had I not modified GMCE and CNQR, I would have been at a nice gain over $2,000. Oh well, listen learned. I'll keep trying at modifying and making them my own trades by tweeking risk up or down. Still, I'm feeling great going into 2010 as my account has increased from $6,000 to $7,265.30 already for a nice 21% gain since 3 weeks ago.....