2008 Portfolio-Stoney Style*

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Jan 1, 2008.

  1. Greetings stock fans and welcome to the brave new frontier, an election year and a possible Bloomberg run... could it get any better for Mr. Market? You say you want the troops home too? Ok how about a Giant Superbowl while we are at it? One thing you can do is take whatever you are hearing as common knowledge from everyone and turn it on it's ear... thus we will NOT have repeated Fed cuts we will NOT have a recession and we will NOT have a weak dollar. Also surprise housing HAS bottomed. The consumer has more money than we think. etc.

    Glad we got that out of the way now what of stocks? Well most all are calling for oil to drop so we have to go the other way here too that means some holding back of the stock market as well. The tax structure of our nation will be under attack by the politicians and if too many hikes get through.... it will really end the party for a number of years. So with that gloomy overhead can we prosper in 08? I'm not sure, my guard is up at the moment but only slightly I continue to be encouraged by the flood of foreign money rushing to our shores to buy our stocks and prop up our financial institutions.... the only problem is like Japan coming here and buying all our real estate... these foreign forays tend to be at tops and not bottoms. As well this extreme volatility of the past year if that were to continue again even the most rudimentary chart watcher is going to draw the lines-- these extreme wobbles also happen at tops and bottoms and there is just no way I can call where we are now a bottom. Rather a January push up and it will most definitely be a top.

    So with that in mind off we go in search for some home run stocks amidst a nervous market...

    #1- ELON.

    Oh yes it's back that stock that made EVERYONE rich last year before diving into the pool without water. This is the future stock the green pick the fellows who are going to make the kitchen of the future cook for you when you are away, turn up your heat and start the whirlpool as you drive towards your house.

    #2 Composite Tech- CPTC. We profiled this in August and bailed with a loss but we like the company. It went from $1.60 to $2.00 on a brief Barrons piece and trapped stoney it went down to $1.40 and then back to $2.20 before spiraling down to $1.40 again. This is a good price. CTC makes an Aluminum Conductor Composite Core cable which they claim can double the current carrying capacity of existing lines, or significantly lower costs for new lines. As a bonus for renewable energy investors, their DeWind subsidiary also manufactures parts for wind turbines. That DeWind division got the attention of Barons.

    #3 Landec- LNDC. Another stoney headache I've been in and out of this stock at about this price many, many times... it just never moves!
    But I'm sure one day it will it's in a nice niche'
    market that serves the agricultural industry. They sell temperature-activated polymer products that help regulate food freshness at the grocers. They also use their products to provide farmers with specialty seed coatings to provide for better crop yields. And they have deals with fragrance companies for their packaging too. This is a very sexy packaging stock with ties into the food chain.

    * Market Cap is just $334 Million.
    * Quarterly sales growth estimated at 11%
    * 24% of the stock is held by insiders
    * Total debt to equity is less than 1%

    #4 General Cable Co.- BGC. A nice powerful blue chip which sells not only high voltage cable for electricity transmission but also has telecommunication applications.

    #5 Trinity-TRN. The rail stock that couldn't shoot straight. Analysts love to hate it, it';s in the right place at the right time yet not going anywhere. They have an inland barge division and make tower structures as well as a huge presence on the rails. Stock is down 20% in a month on fears of a softening economy.

    #6 EJ- Yes going back to the Chinese housing play again!

    #7 ENER- avid viewers know this is my
    " favorite " stock those can be dangerous for the average joe... A new CEO and a new focus on solar while having a killer app in the semi conductors hiding in a division... What more could you ask for?

    #8 AMSC- We have been here and we wish we were still there. A wind play executing at all levels, powerful chart.

    #9 Sterlite- SLT. I love this call Copper in India what more needs to be said. Cathodes, rods & transformer pieces as well as a serious Zinc mining division! This is a $26 dollar stock you buy now for a trip to the $32 level from there we can talk... you may sell, I see a mega cap that is a long term double and those are hard to find!

    #10 Aixtron- AIXG. I always like to include one stock that absolutely no one will ever have heard of and with Aktiengesellschaft in their name I 'm pretty sure I have found one. AIXG produces and supplies deposition equipment to the semiconductor industry. Its solutions are used by a range of customers to build components for electronic and opto-electronic applications, which are used in fiber optic communication systems, wireless and mobile telephony applications, optical and electronic storage devices, computing, signaling and lighting, and displays. The company sells its products and services directly through strategically located sales and service facilities in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan, as well as through independent sales and service representatives in India, Israel, Poland, Russia, and Taiwan. AIXTRON Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Aachen, Germany.

    I put all that in because there is so much in that description to like- we get our overseas exposure we do end to end stuff and we happen to have a kick ass chart!

    Ok That's ten good ones, I like the weird balance of that portfolio... Although #'s 2&3 I'm not overly sure of- I just want to get the names out there for discussion; I may quickly dump them in favor of...in no order of importance ...here are some names that just missed out but will be there for rotating.

    MLNM- I'm hip to Velcide's prospects and I own the stock. Refuses to move through $16 I'd wait till it proves itself. But watch it! Strong buyout possibility in my mind. (but I always feel that way)

    XOMA- my favorite small bio with big earnings I own.

    CTDC- China Direct becoming a solar play. Shhhhh. And they now focus solely on clean and renewable energy in China after selling off some divisions! Looking at it.

    UEPS- My South African play we made so much dough on earlier in the year... little nervous here STILL no contracts announced, smells fishy, one of the steadier nations over there is exploding ion violence.. still any move up through $31 should set this off. It had a disappointing attempt at all time highs and has fallen back into a decent base in $29 area with support at $27 1/2... looks like a good trade but I'm nervous about those SSA contracts! On the fence.

    QSC- This speculative bio I put in my wife's IRA so I watch it... need to fatten up my research here but something good is cooking under the hood here I can smell it. First recommended in Sexy Stock Watch post at $5.50 it certainly hasn't gotten away from us... I'm 99% sure I'm buying this next week. Kept knocking on $5.80 last week looks like it want's to take a quick trip to mid $7's...

    Well that's the best I can do now I need to read this post over a few times and pick my hunting order out. As well I haven't got my China hat screwed on yet- I saw JADE went absolutely nutso the other day- so if you pick right, the overreaction is still there. Rather than overload a portfolio or thread with too much China I held back. As warranted I'll throw more and more China names out to boost our performance!

    PLEASE REMEMBER These are actual suggestions to buy. You really need do no research on your part but of course you will. Like all investments these should go UP in value. Our aim is to cut through the vast maze of junk and deliver to you some concise names to consider that you may not of started out with. We hope we have done just that. And we have no idea why we are using the royal " we " so much in this thread for it is just I- stoney in his underwear, hat on backwards, slightly stoned, watching the Doodlebops (unfortunately) on a cold New Years Day!- PEACE
  2. At what price do you suggest shorting these picks at? Thank you for the short trades.
  3. You really have no respect. You just joined the forums, and now your bashing a well respected poster.

    Most of us value Stoney's picks. Whether they go up or down, still, there's no need for this type of bs. He's given more than a few rockets in 2007.
  4. Oh come on. LNDC? The chart looks like its about to take a good and solid dump.

    He made have had a few good picks in 2006 and 2007 during the bull market, but now we are in bear market mode. These picks may have been good back in 06, but times have changed, time to wake up. Its 2008.

  5. Why don't you post some of your results and compare them with stoneys.
  6. You mean like every other German corporation?

  7. Let me tell you something...its easy to make money during a bull market. Just find a stock, buy in and hang on. However, things have changed. Let me demonstrate to you whats up. Look at that diamond in the sky. Does it catch your eye?

    Here is the investopedia for ya if you need a reference to what I am talking about. This is a clear short...

    That dude from Barron's was trying to bail his buddies out of the stock.

  8. jreyn,

    Although Stoney needs no defense, may I suggest that you short at your own peril. Stoney has been spot on during the declines and upswings of the market. Stoney is money!!!:eek: :eek: :eek:
  9. Thanks for the props guys there are always new folks coming on board at end of year it will take them a while to get up to speed.

    I realized I made a boo boo. Fushi FSIN is supposed to be on the list and I spaced it.
    I will mention it now and then come back with some good Fushi research for you today.

    While trying to get a direction for the market in the first few days here I will aim to wiggle into the above names.

    As to bashing Landec I said I was less convinced there but I as I also said I have a long history in and out of the stock and in getting the various mailers to my house I have developed a nice appreciation for what they do. When will the rest of the market wake up and appreciate what I am appreciating is always the question. But it's hard to argue that 07 was an Ag-Investing year and as you work your way through the food chain... I believe longevity and freshness come into play at these high prices.

    As to bashing my German play no one has ever heard of... you have heard of Thysen Krupp I imagine I've invested there in the past, you have probably heard of Adidas and a few others... I was surprised to find this stock lurking among the US semi conductors and the more I researched the more I liked. There has been little fanfare on the listing and as far as I can tell it is just going to be us here at ET that is going to make money on this play-- since no money professional I have brought the name to despite their many years experience had heard of the name either-- I think it's safe to assume that it is more than being " German " that makes this stock low key. ~ stoney
  10. The reason why Fushi is so interesting is because they have pioneered a US strategy that many other Chinese companies may try to emulate. While we were sending trade reps over to China to set up deals they came to tiny Tennessee and bought out their major US rival!

    Fushi International (NASDAQ: FSIN), a leading Chinese manufacturer of bimetallic wire, acquired its main competitor, Fayetteville, Tenn.-based Copperweld Bimetallics. The purchase price of $22.5 million, including $8 million in assumed debt, is especially significant in that it represents Tennessee's largest investment to date by a company from the People's Republic of China. At present, there are less than a dozen Chinese-owned manufacturing operations operating in North America.

    Copperweld is to copper-clad wire what Kleenex is to tissue. America's leading manufacturer serving the communications, utility and transportation industries in both the United States and international markets, it generated $70 million in revenue for the year ended in June 2007.

    The Copperweld acquisition is the latest event in a very busy year for Fushi as the company was listed on the NASDAQ Global Market in August. It is now the pre-eminent supplier of bimetallic products in the WORLD with pro forma revenue for the twelve months ended June 30, 2007 of approximately $152 million!

    So what's next for Copperweld under Chinese ownership?

    Last week, Fushi announced plans to invest approximately $3.2 million in new machinery for its Copperweld facility. The new machinery is set to be installed in the first quarter and operational in the second quarter of 2008. The equipment will enable the drawing, bunching and stranding of copper-clad aluminum (CCA) wire for the rapidly growing energy sector. It will bolster Copperweld's ability to manufacture a wider array of finished goods directly and allow them to discontinue outsourcing some phases of their production to other companies.

    $ $ $ $ $

    Fushi's facility in Dalian, China, specializes in CCA and has developed the capability to draw bimetallic wire down to diameters as small as 0.03 millimeters—about one-fifth that of the average human hair. The wire's lightweight aluminum core is bonded to an outer copper strip. The combination of the two metals has potential in a range of applications for customers as varied as automotive suppliers, appliance companies and electronics' manufacturers, who use a variety of wire constructions. As a result of these investments, Fushi will be manufacturing those new products in Fayetteville USA!!!!!

    What we have here folks is perhaps a whole new way for China and the US to do business. Rather than producing crap and underselling us they have come here and taken a great prize, a cog that they could not of found in China and together this TEAM will rule the CCA world! This was in my view THE CORPORATE purchase of the year last year and no one but me seems to have noticed. This is a new, friendly and profitable way to do business with China. ~stoney
    #10     Jan 2, 2008