US economy: concensus is that the US economy will continue to slow into a "soft landing." We've only had one soft landing on record, I believe it was 94-95- in the midst of the greatest economic bull run ever. Iraq: Getting worse and worse. Woodward's book details how the intel community expect far greater violence in 2007. North Korea: WMD proliferator. About to test the bomb - or so they say. Even if they don't - the dicator there can always use that threat and the treat of proliferation to get whatever he wants. Iran: fueling Iraq insurgency? May be emboldened by US hands tied up in a worsening Iraq. Maybe thinking if the West allowed North Korea to develop the bomb, so they'll be able to get away with it as well. Trying to wait out the Bush presidency? Afganistan: looking more and more like Iraq now. Pakistan: the worst nuclear proliferator out there. Gave nuclear info and tech to North Korea and Iran. Becoming more of a hotbed of terrorist activity as time goes on. I don't see how all these situations can be any better in 2007.
1. Iraq insurgency very bad. Expect new solutions post the midterms if dems sweep. Otherwise wait until next admin in '08. 2. Consensus building about N. Korea as a bad player. UN to spearhead containment. 3. Nuke proliferation to Iran may stabilize region. 4. US domestic economy much more important issue. 5. Rising equities based upon 'goldilocks' economy. Do you believe in fairy tales?
I like to see such gloom and doom thinking. This type of thinking makes people pull back from the markets and sit on the sidelines in cash. They sell out prematurely and then there is left only buyers. Eventually the suckers will figure out that the world isnt coming to an end and will jump in creating a nice bull market. However, by that time I am long in the market and simply ride the wave up up up.