Good post rubibond007. In the mid 1990s I saw an internal report written by an analyst at a major oil firm voicing concern regarding the forecasted production decline in Brent crude oil and the potential problems with cargo pricing that could occur as a result. Late last year I was on a website called "European Tribune" and I came across the following in the "comments" section: "Certainly the decline in Brent crude oil production led eventually to the Brent 15 day market becoming an accident waiting to happen, and there was a squeeze practically every other month as the number of cargoes available for trading declined and the depth of pockets necessary for squeezes fell." Do you agree with the commenter's assessment and, if so, would this not have some impact on the WTI - Brent spread? Thanks.
finnaly a short whos actually sane. there is no doubt that the market is running wild and bound to crash for a while but for some reason some shorts feel like they need to 'convince themselves' its all a bubble based on fantasy, they will jump on any bearish argument doing little homework and rationalize anything
disagreed...here is why... ICE Brent Crude IS a physical or financially settled contracted...click on this link: https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/IPE_EF_Explained.pdf also read this from the ICE website... Trading Methods: Electronic futures, Exchange of futures for physical (EFP), Exchange of futures for swap (EFS) and Block Trades are available for this contract. Delivery/Settlement Basis: The ICE Brent Crude futures contract is a deliverable contract based on EFP delivery with an option to cash settle, i.e the ICE Brent Index price for the day following the last trading day of the futures contract.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vfITjJ0IQiDA.asf "Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes." ---Jesse Livermore OIL WILL GO UP FOREVER!!!!!! CHINA AND INDIA WILL CONSUME ALL OF IT AND MAKE UP THE LOSS OF DEMAND FROM THE USA (LARGEST CONSUMER), JAPAN (3RD LARGEST WITHIN THROWS OF A RECESSION) , EUROPE (ALREADY IN A DRAMATIC SLOWDOWN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GERMANY). GOLDMAN PRICE TARGET OF 200 IS REASONABLE AFTER ALL ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SAID DOW WOULD HIT 20000 IN 2000. BOOYAH IF YOU ARE TRADING OIL THEN GOOD LUCK BECAUSE YOU ARE GOING TO NEED IT. IF YOU ARE AN EXCEPTIONAL TRADER YOU CAN MAKE A FORTUNE YET THE PROFESSIONALS WILL LIKE LOSE MONEY AND PROBABILTY WISE YOU WILL TOO. PS BY THE WAY GOLDMAN SACHS WAS A FOUNDED AS NOTORIOUS INVESTMENT POOL THAT MANIPULATED STOCKS THROUGHOUT THE EARLY 20TH CENTURY AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SMALL INVESTOR. YET THEY HOLD THIS SO CALLED STELLAR REPUTATION. READ YOUR HISTORY BOOKS, THEY WILL SURVIVE THE MARKET HOWEVER MOST SMALL UNSOPHISTICATED INVESTORS WON'T.
increasenow: GREAT post. Concise and easy to read, even for a high-school graduate like me. I'm shorting CL! Have a good weekend! B
All I know, is that, according to EW, oil will still go up for a bit, but a violent crash is on its way....the question is when. The last two days, I have seen oil stocks pull back. To me, when I see stocks pull back it is a reliable indicator that the commodity will soon follow.