Notice that adjusted for USD oil is around fall 2007 level. Once it broke that level in 2007 there was no turning back for the market.
Because the run up to $140 couple years back was totally 'exposed' as speculator manipulation. We then got a huge commodity sell-off back then and then the banking, sub-prime crisis etc...so..thus invalidating 'crazy' high Oil prices...
Oil is in a bubble. It's being driven up on speculation and cheap liquidity. Remember that the only way to get the economy out of a recession is to create bubbles. $3.50-$4.00 gas is coming thanks to speculation and manipulation.
I wouldnt be surprised to see it go back to $60, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to $110 at this point...
if 'reasons' can determine where the market will or will not go, then the wrong people have got rich. (or the right people haven't)
all markets are speculative and therefore susceptible to manipulation. Crude oil needs position limits which will never happen because the large players in this market own the politicians.
As others have said, the sooner you get the word "never" out of your vocabulary as a trader the better off you'll be. Just like when you originally posted this thread, crude jumped up over your "Never hit $135" price shortly after then if I remember correctly. You might want to rethink any career as a price forecaster. Do you want to make money trading? If so, stop thinking X market will never hit Y price. It will mess up your head and your P/L when it invariably happens. Who cares about forecasting just trade what you see and let the market sort out the rest. But I know you are not really trading this so it doesn't matter anyway, it is just one of your exercises in futility.
Do not know why someone dug up this old thread. The entire thread is meaningless. Better bury it dead. As so many people have said here, it is waste of time trying to forecast price level. With energy futures, you trade and you don't invest. Had you shorted CL at $135 and you were $12 out of money, you would get a margin call and broker would close your position. Same thing when CL dropped below $40.