great insight here: http://www.alaron.com/energy_report.aspx?blogmonth=5&blogday=23&blogyear=2008&blogid=80
yep but 1 reason can beat 20 reasons. demand is strong (or am i mistaken ?) oil is very cheap, fair value would be 1000 dollars for a barrel, it's stupid to sell something as precious as oil at 20 dollars for a whole barrel
I think oil can go down but overall $135 is cheap. America is not built for $135 oil thatâs the problem. We live in suburbs or rural areas were you need a car to go places. I remember as a kid watching Chinese and Indian people riding bikes down streets. Now they are becoming like use and this is the beginning. We need to get are asses working on electric cars and other fuels. PS We need a stronger dollar too
the bears will just think you are one more 'convert' whos follish enough to believe supply and demand make things go up. contrarianism is a religion, everybody is doing it these days. I wouldnt be surprised if my mother decided to became a contrarian sometime soon. oil could crash all the way down to $100, the bears will rejoice, yet EVERY single time it proved to be a buying opportunity
The Physical settle brent at ICE is a OTC market. The Brent Futures contract is a Cash settle contract. There is a lot of money to be made on this IF you have a Deep Pocket. let me explain something, WTI minus dated Brent should be roughly equal to the freight rate, for that reason in a normal market the crude-oil prices usually depend on two things: quality and location. The greater the distance from the major exporters, the greater the price, That's why the Brent crude costs $1-$2 less than WTI crude. Brent and WTI at Cushing, Okla are really of similar quality. But Brent has traded at discount to similar crude in the U.S. because oil from the Middle East or Africa costs less to ship to Europe than it does to the U.S. That's Why is so important to watch the freight market when you trade de Brent/WTI spread.. Normaly, when the freight rates drops, then a lot of physical traders and countries start importing massive quantities of Brent and the spread between the Brent vs the WTI go in a contango, Right Now the Freight rates are in a bull situation, So what you are seeing right now is a Huge basis trading game. Nymex crude is out of whack with the realities of global demand, Brent crude is more of a reflection of worldwide demand right now. IF the WTI/BRENT goes into a contango (its 23 cents away from that), Then I recommend you to avoid the front-end contracts and position yourselve in the longer-dated contracts and hedge the spread with a long position in WTI contango. BTW: The IPE index right now is just a tool to make some money "underbeneath the table"..
not that another idiot starting a thread deserves a comment, but i couldn't resist. i'll use your format: 1. you're clearly not a trader- nobody who trades with real $ would use the word "NEVER" regarding price. are you really as fucking dense as you appear? 2. like #1, no trader would think that a list of reasons (right or wrong) have dick to do with today or tomorrow's print. 3. a question: when you spent all this time writing up your sophomoric 20 reasons, did you think it was going to reflect positively on you in terms of credibility? clearly you did with your 'time stamp' in the title to memorialize your wicked awesome call of the oil top. putz. hint: any real trader now views you as a complete joke. 4. another question: if CL falls tuesday and we have a pullback, are you going to believe that such a pullback validates your paper trader's premise in the OP? hint again: it won't and, if you come back crowing about how right you were, you will further reveal yourself as an even greater idiot (if that is possible). 5. this post is being written by someone who is SHORT CL- and has the scars to prove it. conclusion: it's posts like yours, by dolts like you, which makes me very nervous about being short. being on the same side of a trade with idiots like you makes me think i've got to be on the wrong side of this trade. the only caveat is, of course, i'm short actual money.