================= IncreaseNow; You make some excellant points. And hope you are right. Premarket, you still are right; & I am talkining about hitting a closing price.0f 135 [ not intraday] And adding to your scenario; Morgan Stanley got caught [Soros Senate hearings, recently] grinding the faces of the poor, in oil markets .Morgan Stanley has some great stock market makers like Joshua Lukeman; so they should exit oil futures markets.BP got fined $300 million in propane cheating. However oil & unleaded , long term trend trend is still up; frankly its not only the probability of a tornado spiking oil, its the trend is still up. And Holy Biblical patterns of Israel defending'/striking Iran/enemies; US defending/striking enemies in Iraq.......favors oil above $135 close, eventually Shortages could spike it, even with Morgan Stanly stopping grinding the faces of the poor, in oil futures markets..
agreed...todays "weak" move signals about to drop and hard...$120's here we come...bearish sentiment on Oil continues...
1. why does a "weak" move (in anything traded) only signal "about to drop".... and drop "hard"? 2. why does "bearish sentiment" mean a market must go lower, 3. and how are you measuring bearish sentiment ? you don't say in the above post
Previously seen weakening price action via a divergence now seems to be switching to strengthening/basing for a breakout to the upside. Weekly chart is not just bullish, but a 'runaway trend'. 720m chart indicates that tomorrow bulls will be bid crazy crushing all shorts, expect big vola to the upside ImPO at the time when stock markets indicate weakness for tomorrow. To survive in this game it's important not to 'fall in love' with a bias, but to follow a chart's indications. Anyway, that's what I see Best to all! I will be trying to go long at first Long signal via the electronic & stay long into MOC (scaled trade). <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1968883>
here is my take...CL cannot push higher and falls lower later in the day...no momentum for the bulls to take higher...hence, the downward fall at the end of the day tells me bulls are tiring and Oil bear market about to begin...
whew...wow...amazingly bold call in the face of the bearish drop off at the end of todays trading...wow...bold call!
1. Nothing "amazingly bold" there because I am trying to follow 'footprints' on a bullish chart ImPO 2. I believe that real weakness will only form on Weekly chart, not yet 3. If you were right on your 'prediction' of afternoon sell-off that would be just luck BTW in all those points that you make, whether valid or not, you seem to not have included any timing indicators. It's all well to come up with fundamental reasons, but you DO need technical analyses research to see when conditions start turning bearish.
apparently some people don't think major/minor trends matter that much and wake up one day and read some news and decide this is the exact moment when the trend will reverse !