When I look on the Daily chart of CL N8 I see a vicious headfake, squeeze the life out of shorts & when they are convinced that crude is 'unshortable' the real sell-off starts, but by that time a hell of a lot of traders would not trade CL from the short side, so I assume anyway. But the method that I use via the histogram + p/a do suggest that the end MIGHT be near. What wins a lot of the time in nailing tops is a combination of small stops & persistence. Histogram still suggests that an end, perhaps intermediate, we never know these things, MIGHT be near. I get headfakes all the time intraday, it's to be expected & when I manage to be in without kneejerking in price I have a nice moment, lucky strike. But I do expect headfakes on all my entries. So the same I see here on the Daily chart, signal is there still, perhaps not complete yet, but the fact is that no matter what the press or any analyst might say, no matter of what standing that person is, I will only trust the method that I use, not whatever somebody else uses. Bottom line - I do see weakening p/a, especially so after that vicious upside last Thu/Fri. I will try & post here whenever I will start looking for a short entry, so we can compare notes. Best to all! <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1951898>
I think oil will be under $100 by September - as demand is dropping. HOWEVER, I am like any other idiot who posts his mindless drivel with the underlying and undisputable fact that I, in all reality, have absolutely not possible way of being able to prognosticate the future cost of oil. As the fact is, it could just as easily be $200 by then - How in God's name could anyone ever know? It is a guess at best - educated or not makes no difference - just ask Boone Pickens about his brilliant short of oil at $100 at the beginning of the year. I am not long oil - I would never go long oil or short oil. I would do a straddle, and that is why I am here. As soon as it is clear that everyone in posts, and all the ANALysts, "know" that oil will go to $200, that will be a great indicator to short oil - and go for a straddle. If you short oil and donât protect on the upside or go long and donât protect on the downside, then this is what you need to do (and it is guaranteed that you will have far greater odds and, without any question a much greater time). Take $100,000 and fly to Vegas and play the craps table. For being so "cool" the casino will give you all the suites, girls (free condoms), and booze you can handle. In addition, they will make you feel as though you really are important. It is that or you could always sit behind your laptop "guessing" which way oil is going to go - with absolutely no possible way to accurately predict oil one way or the other.
Today's p/a has confirmed to me that this is no longer a bull market, this looks more like a cycle about to end perhaps intermediately
What a gigantic shitload of points were made available by the CL market today. The range (Tuesday June 10 2008) was 650; as already commented here by me before, from time to time in the last 18 months there are big ranges out at 4 to 6 bucks for the day. Those that had turned around from the 'bear' tack on to the 'bull' tack or said that CL was going next to $150, would have been instead, over the past 2 days, getting their peckers chewed up in the mincer - this time the 'bear' mincer. As always, the best play is intraday, open to close. Just play those gyrations. So looking at the pattern for today (June 10), the session's gyrations (up/down repeating) produced 20 macro 'legs' of minimum 45 points (ie cents). The mean average of those 20 'legs' was 129 points per 'leg'. Therefore between 10am and 2.30pm, thats more than 2500 points which were on offer.
here's an ink blot test for trying to guess oil prices... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
Oil has more legs to go as demand keeps on increasing from developing world which don't care as long as they keep the local prices in check in fear of turmoil and political blacklash with huge subsidy so no let up in demand in near future.I would like to retereat USA should put pressure on these countries to stop providing subsidy and let there market open. Read further here ... http://dollarrupee.blogspot.com/
Oil is currently a dollar hedge. Supply/demand points to oil at 70 range. If America is unable to "convince" the Saudis that they should overproduce to kill the oil bull, and if America is unable to "convince" the Iraqi government to overproduce thus killing the oil bull, oil will continue to rise, giving global hedgers more confidence in oil and less confidence in the West. This is very dangerous because unlike gold, oil effects economies, and worse, makes the wrong nations and cultures rich, and the right ones poor.