This is a ‘be the ocean’ moment. Look at the retail position on forexIG. look at the action since October. Straight down and up to cleanse The 10 year has been cut down from over 3 to 2.5 20.04% is the correction in oct thru dec. but they can call it a bear market. So 19.9999% is correction. But 20.0001% is bear market. Brilliant. The evidences are there. The next equity push will be huge. Massive sideline cash. And just wait for the narrative ‘this is a NEW bull market’
20.042933% The amount of plastic in the ocean. https://www.ibtimes.com/pregnant-dead-whale-found-nearly-50-pounds-plastic-her-stomach-2781891 Need to go back to glass returnable bottles, or we will be like the whales.
dozu, First of all, this is kind of interesting. Thanks for sharing. Now the most obvious conclusion here is to just bash retail: "went net short while S&P returned double digits this quarter", yadda yadda yadda. But after looking closely I think you will see the net positioning actually lags the SPX for the time period. I.e. when the net long position is decreasing (bulls capitulate), the SPX returns are positive about one month later, and when the net short position is decreasing (bears capitulate), the SPX returns are negative immediately after the nadir. So right now, unless the net long position goes from 20% to 5% something, the indicator would suggests a major sell off is imminent. Looks like one can learn a lot from "dumb money"
appreciate your thoughts into this.. the easier read though, is just compare the left end to the right end... the price has almost recovered fully, but now retail has given up a lot of chips. chip control is key for the next push... the smart money doesn't carry the dumb to heaven.
btw... this is the best sentiment stuff I have seen.... the other stuff VIX put/call etc, you've got the pros and the retail mixed together; the COT stuff is useless... AAII can be useful, but that's once a week.