2 years, 1000 posts. Am I any smarter?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by drsteph, May 19, 2007.

  1. Its been fun ET, but I think I am going to go and lurk now. Or start over with a new screenname (everyone else does it, so why shouldn't I?)

    It has certainly been an education, and overall profitable,in both real and intellectual terms. My thanks to the moderators who keep the stupidity level lower than on the yahoo message boards although we all know that this is hardly a boast.

    I started off here as a FX guy, got sucked into the bear case, briefly became a hyperinflationist (thanks though for the gold trade on that!) and then a deflationist, and then a hyperinflationist again, and then just confused on the whole issue. Now, I have my own view but time will tell if I am right, and so will my portfolio. So far, it certainly hasn't lost me any revenue.

    I believe in global macro, but know that the Soros-like trades are probably a thing of the past as exchange of securities and information are much more efficient. I too worry about the hyperleverage and credit market excesses in this world, and did very nicely on the subprime lenders collapse as a result, but am coming to understand the relativism of the overall market's movement as I never have before. It is almost doublespeak to think that a positive can be an actual negative, but its very difficult to think in terms like that and I think it is how most of us are mislead. It is a natural error in human thought, so I don't beat myself up too much about it.

    To the conspiracy theorists here: get over it. Its not a conspiracy in the sense that you think of. It is how the world is run, and part of 'the great game.' Interests oppose other interests, and some people direct those interests and others don't. There are many organizations out there alternatively opposing each other, intermittently allying and breaking off, and all competing for relative advantage. Are we pawns in such a scenario? Perhaps, but what does it matter? I would imagine that those at the top of such interests, are almost certainly, slaves to those interests as well; if not to an individual then to a concept or tenet of their organization or interest. The only true freedom is Anarchy, and I don't expect that I or my family would survive long in such a setting. I'll take a pass, thanks. Its called global geopolitics people. Do some reading and take a longer view.
  2. Briefly, a few people I would like to thank for their opinions:

    $cost average man has to be my hero. What a great run you had last year! Well done. Should go manage a hedge fund, whatever his age.

    libertad and I have had some heated discussions, which I enjoyed. Thanks.

    Zdreg, nitro, bitstream, thank you for your intelligent and useful posts.

    Optionpro, I was disappointed that we could never get it together on the CEF thread. I think we just have very different opinions in that area. That's OK - I was new to CEF's at the time.

    To all the folks in the bond thread (ghargur2, steveosborne, mccurto, et al). I got out of my structural short long bond position a long time ago. May reenter once yields bust through 5.25% but until then I remain as befuddled as anyone.

    To tony caldaro - I think you are on to something. Can't pull the trigger yet, but I do like your approach. You and I are closer in thought than I have let on.

    SouthAmerica, I still think you are a buffoon.

    I miss Harrytrader.

    And who was this guy Jesus anyway?
  3. take, take, take,

    what wisdom have YOU given back

    "If you want love
    You've got to give a little
    If you want faith
    You just believe a little
    If you want love
    If you want peace
    Turn your cheek a little
    Oh you've got to give
    You've got to give to live"
    s.hagar :cool: